Zhao Mengzhen, Huang Xiaodan, Kjellstrom Tord, Lee Jason Kai Wei, Otto Matthias, Zhang Xiliang, Romanello Marina, Zhang Da, Cai Wenjia
Department of Earth System Science, Institute for Global Change Studies, Ministry of Education Ecological Field Station for East Asian Migratory Birds, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China.
Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China; Institute of Industrial Energy Conservation and Environmental Protection, China Center for Information Industry Development, Beijing, China.
Lancet Planet Health. 2022 Dec;6(12):e941-e948. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00245-5.
BACKGROUND: Despite the emerging carbon neutrality pledges from different countries, it is still unclear how much these pledges would cost and how the costs would compare with the economic benefits. Comparisons at the country level are important for tightening country-specific emissions trajectories to keep the temperature limit targets outlined in the Paris Agreement within reach. We aimed to systematically estimate avoided heat-related labour productivity losses against the costs of climate change mitigation at country and regional levels. METHODS: In this modelling study, to address the above-mentioned research gaps, we first selected two representative climate change scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 [RCP6.0] scenario, a higher warming scenario representing limited mitigation pledges before the Paris Agreement with around 3°C warming by the end of this century; and RCP2.6 scenario, a lower warming scenario assuming global temperature rise is limited to 2°C) and estimated heat-related labour productivity loss using the exposure-response function at country and regional levels. By representing the direct heat-related labour productivity losses in a multiregional global computable general equilibrium model, we then did a benefit-cost analysis to quantify the economic benefits of avoided heat-related labour productivity losses as well as the estimated reduction in gross domestic product (GDP) related to carbon reduction. FINDINGS: By 2100, the overall economic losses due to heat-related labour productivity loss could range from about 1·5% of global GDP under the RCP6.0 scenario to about 0·1% of global GDP under the RCP2.6 scenario. The productivity losses will be highly concentrated in low-latitude regions, especially in southeast Asia, India, and the Middle East, implying the necessity of additional adaptation measures. By 2100, about 51·8% of global climate change mitigation costs could be offset by economic benefits from reduced labour productivity losses. Cumulatively, about 17·0% of climate change mitigation costs could be offset by the economic benefits between 2020 and 2100, when using a 2% social discounting rate. The costs and benefits of climate change mitigation will be distributed highly unevenly across regions due to their varying climate zones and economic structures. Regions with benefits from reduced productivity losses higher than mitigation costs are mainly low-latitude and tropical regions with lower income and lower emissions, such as southeast Asia, Brazil, and Mexico. More than half the climate change mitigation costs could be offset by the economic benefits by 2100 for the world's largest emitters, including the USA, China, the EU, and India. Low benefit-cost ratios are expected in economies that rely on fossil fuels, such as Canada, Russia, and the Middle East. INTERPRETATION: Although pledging carbon neutrality implies radical changes to most economies, substantial health and economic gains can be achieved by reduced heat-related labour productivity loss, even without accounting for other benefits. The benefit-cost analysis in this study shows the potential for choosing more stringent climate change mitigation pathways in some regions. Regions with low benefit-cost ratios need to restructure their economies to reduce mitigation costs as well as losses from declined fossil fuel exports. FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Tsinghua-Toyota Joint Research Fund, the Wellcome Trust, Tsinghua University-China Three Gorges Corporation Joint Research Center for Climate Governance Mechanism and Green Low-carbon Transformation Strategy, the National Research Foundation, Prime Minister's Office, Singapore (Campus for Research Excellence and Technological Enterprise [CREATE] programme), and the Global Energy Interconnection Development and Coorperation Organization.
背景:尽管不同国家纷纷做出了实现碳中和的承诺,但这些承诺的成本究竟有多高,以及成本与经济效益相比情况如何,目前仍不清楚。在国家层面进行比较对于收紧各国特定的排放轨迹,以使《巴黎协定》中设定的温度限制目标触手可及至关重要。我们旨在系统地估算在国家和区域层面,避免与高温相关的劳动生产率损失相对于减缓气候变化成本的情况。 方法:在这项建模研究中,为了填补上述研究空白,我们首先选择了两种具有代表性的气候变化情景(代表性浓度路径6.0 [RCP6.0]情景,这是一种升温幅度较高的情景,代表了《巴黎协定》之前减排承诺有限的情况,到本世纪末升温约3°C;以及RCP2.6情景,这是一种升温幅度较低的情景,假设全球气温上升限制在2°C),并使用暴露-反应函数在国家和区域层面估算与高温相关的劳动生产率损失。通过在一个多区域全球可计算一般均衡模型中体现与高温直接相关的劳动生产率损失,我们随后进行了效益成本分析,以量化避免与高温相关的劳动生产率损失所带来的经济效益,以及与碳减排相关的国内生产总值(GDP)估计减少量。 研究结果:到2100年,与高温相关的劳动生产率损失导致的总体经济损失在RCP6.0情景下可能占全球GDP的约1.5%,在RCP2.6情景下可能占全球GDP的约0.1%。生产率损失将高度集中在低纬度地区,特别是东南亚、印度和中东地区,这意味着需要采取额外的适应措施。到2100年,全球减缓气候变化成本的约51.8%可能会被劳动生产率损失减少带来的经济效益所抵消。累计而言,在使用2%的社会贴现率时,2020年至2100年间,气候变化减缓成本的约17.0%可能会被经济效益所抵消。由于不同地区的气候区和经济结构各异,减缓气候变化的成本和效益在各地区的分布将极不均衡。劳动生产率损失减少带来的效益高于减缓成本的地区主要是低收入和低排放的低纬度及热带地区,如东南亚、巴西和墨西哥。到2100年,对于包括美国、中国、欧盟和印度在内的全球最大排放国而言,一半以上的气候变化减缓成本可能会被经济效益所抵消。在依赖化石燃料的经济体中,如加拿大、俄罗斯和中东地区,预计效益成本比会很低。 解读:尽管承诺实现碳中和意味着大多数经济体要进行根本性变革,但即使不考虑其他益处,通过减少与高温相关的劳动生产率损失,也能实现显著的健康和经济收益。本研究中的效益成本分析显示了在某些地区选择更严格的气候变化减缓路径的潜力。效益成本比低的地区需要调整其经济结构,以降低减缓成本以及化石燃料出口下降带来的损失。 资金来源:中国国家自然科学基金、清华-丰田联合研究基金、惠康信托基金会、清华大学-中国长江三峡集团公司气候治理机制与绿色低碳转型战略联合研究中心、新加坡国家研究基金会总理办公室(卓越研究与技术企业园区[CREATE]计划)以及全球能源互联网发展合作组织。
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