College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China.
School of Transportation, Southeast University, Nanjing 211189, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2022 Nov 25;19(23):15705. doi: 10.3390/ijerph192315705.
Transportation is the main carrier of population movement, so it is significant to clarify how different transportation modes influence epidemic transmission. This paper verified the relationship between different levels of facilities and epidemic transmission by use of the K-means clustering method and the Mann-Whitney U test. Next, quantile regression and negative binomial regression were adopted to evaluate the relationship between transportation modes and transmission patterns. Finally, this paper proposed a control efficiency indicator to assess the differentiated strategies. The results indicated that the epidemic appeared 2-3 days earlier in cities with strong hubs, and the diagnoses were nearly fourfold than in other cities. In addition, air and road transportation were strongly associated with transmission speed, while railway and road transportation were more correlated with severity. A prevention strategy that considered transportation facility levels resulted in a reduction of the diagnoses of about 6%, for the same cost. The results of different strategies may provide valuable insights for cities to develop more efficient control measures and an orderly restoration of public transportation during the steady phase of the epidemic.
交通是人口流动的主要载体,因此明确不同交通方式如何影响疫情传播至关重要。本文通过 K 均值聚类方法和曼-惠特尼 U 检验验证了设施水平与疫情传播的关系。然后,采用分位数回归和负二项回归来评估交通方式与传播模式之间的关系。最后,本文提出了一个控制效率指标来评估差异化策略。结果表明,枢纽城市的疫情提前 2-3 天出现,确诊病例数是其他城市的近 4 倍。此外,航空和公路运输与传播速度密切相关,而铁路和公路运输与严重程度相关性更强。考虑交通设施水平的预防策略可使相同成本下的诊断病例数减少约 6%。不同策略的结果可能为城市提供有价值的见解,以在疫情稳定阶段制定更有效的控制措施和有序恢复公共交通。