School of Economics and Resource Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Beijing Key Lab of Study on SCI-TECH Strategy for Urban Green Development, Beijing 100875, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Mar 21;18(6):3255. doi: 10.3390/ijerph18063255.
Understanding the reasons for the differences in the spread of COVID-19 in different cities of China is important for future epidemic prevention and control. This study analyzed this issue from the perspective of population migration from Wuhan (the epicenter of the COVID-19 outbreak in China). It reveals that population outflow from Wuhan to other cities in Hubei Province (the province where Wuhan is located) and metropolises and provincial capitals outside of Hubei province exceeded those to other cities. This is broadly consistent with the distribution of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Additionally, model analysis revealed that population outflow from Wuhan was the key factor that determined the COVID-19 situations. The spread of COVID-19 was positively correlated with GDP per capita and resident population and negatively correlated with the distance from Wuhan and the number of hospital beds, while population density was not a strong influential factor. Additionally, the demographic characteristics of population migration from Wuhan also affected the virus transmission. Particularly, businesspeople (who tend to have a high frequency of social activities) were more likely to spread COVID-19. This study indicated that specific measures to control population outflow from the epicenter at the early stage of the epidemic were of great significance.
理解中国不同城市 COVID-19 传播差异的原因，对于未来的疫情防控具有重要意义。本研究从武汉（中国 COVID-19 疫情的中心）人口迁移的角度分析了这个问题。结果表明，武汉向湖北省内其他城市（武汉所在的省份）以及湖北以外的大都市和省会城市的人口外流超过了向其他城市的外流。这与确诊 COVID-19 病例的分布大致一致。此外，模型分析表明，武汉的人口外流是决定 COVID-19 疫情的关键因素。COVID-19 的传播与人均 GDP 和常住人口呈正相关，与距武汉的距离和病床数量呈负相关，而人口密度不是一个强影响因素。此外，武汉人口迁移的人口特征也影响了病毒的传播。特别是，商人（社交活动较为频繁）更容易传播 COVID-19。本研究表明，在疫情早期控制疫情中心的人口外流采取具体措施具有重要意义。
