No. 422, Siming South Rd, School of Public Affairs, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361005, China.
No. 13, Fayuan Street, School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001, China.
Int J Infect Dis. 2022 May;118:203-210. doi: 10.1016/j.ijid.2022.03.002. Epub 2022 Mar 4.
This study aims to examine and explain the differences at city level in cumulative COVID-19 cases and time from first to last infection during the first 6 weeks of the epidemic in China.
A quantitative study is conducted in China based on the multisource spatial data of 315 Chinese cities. Firstly, the spatial discrepancy of COVID-19 transmission was examined based on spatial autocorrelation analysis and hot pot analysis. Next, a comprehensive indicator framework was established by including a wide range of factors such as human mobility, geographical features, public health measures, and residents' awareness. Finally, multivariate regression models using these variables were constructed to identify the determinants of COVID-19 transmission.
Significant spatial discrepancy of transmission was proved, and 10 determinants were identified.
The transmission consequence (measured by the number of cumulative cases) was mostly correlated with the migration scale from Wuhan, followed by socioeconomic factors. Transmission duration (measured as the time from the first to last case within the city) was mostly determined by total migration scale and lockdown speed, which suggests that timely implementation of public health measures facilitated fast control of transmission. Residents' attention to COVID-19 was proved to be not only helpful for reducing confirmed cases, but also in favor of rapid transmission control. Altitude produced slight but significant effect on transmission duration. These conclusions are expected to provide decision support for the local governments of China and other jurisdictions.
本研究旨在考察并解释中国疫情爆发的前 6 周内，城市层面累计 COVID-19 病例数和首例至末例感染时间的差异。
本研究在中国进行了一项定量研究，基于 315 个中国城市的多源空间数据。首先，采用空间自相关分析和热点分析考察 COVID-19 传播的空间差异。接下来，通过纳入广泛的因素，如人口流动、地理特征、公共卫生措施和居民意识，建立了一个综合指标框架。最后，使用这些变量构建多元回归模型，以确定 COVID-19 传播的决定因素。
证明了传播存在显著的空间差异，并确定了 10 个决定因素。
传播后果（以累计病例数衡量）主要与武汉的移民规模相关，其次是社会经济因素。传播持续时间（以城市内首例至末例病例的时间衡量）主要由总移民规模和封锁速度决定，这表明及时实施公共卫生措施有助于快速控制传播。居民对 COVID-19 的重视不仅有助于减少确诊病例，而且有利于快速控制传播。海拔对传播持续时间有轻微但显著的影响。这些结论有望为中国和其他司法管辖区的地方政府提供决策支持。
