Risk Factors for Mortality in Emergently Admitted Patients with Acute Gastric Ulcer: An Analysis of 15,538 Patients in National Inpatient Sample, 2005-2014.

Background: Patients admitted emergently with a primary diagnosis of acute gastric ulcer have significant complications including morbidity and mortality. The objective of this study was to assess the risk factors of mortality including the role of surgery in gastric ulcers. Methods: Adult (18−64-year-old) and elderly (≥65-year-old) patients admitted emergently with hemorrhagic and/or perforated gastric ulcers, were analyzed using the National Inpatient Sample database, 2005−2014. Demographics, various clinical data, and associated comorbidities were collected. A stratified analysis was combined with a multivariable logistic regression model to assess predictors of mortality. Results: Our study analyzed a total of 15,538 patients, split independently into two age groups: 6338 adult patients and 9200 elderly patients. The mean age (SD) was 50.42 (10.65) in adult males vs. 51.10 (10.35) in adult females (p < 0.05). The mean age (SD) was 76.72 (7.50) in elderly males vs. 79.03 (7.80) in elderly females (p < 0.001). The percentage of total deceased adults was 1.9% and the percentage of total deceased elderly was 3.7%, a difference by a factor of 1.94. Out of 3283 adult patients who underwent surgery, 32.1% had perforated non-hemorrhagic ulcers vs. 1.8% in the non-surgical counterparts (p < 0.001). In the 4181 elderly surgical patients, 18.1% had perforated non-hemorrhagic ulcers vs. 1.2% in the non-surgical counterparts (p < 0.001). In adult patients managed surgically, 2.6% were deceased, while in elderly patients managed surgically, 5.5% were deceased. The mortality of non-surgical counterparts in both age groups were lower (p < 0.001). The multivariable logistic regression model for adult patients electing surgery found delayed surgery, frailty, and the presence of perforations to be the main risk factors for mortality. In the regression model for elderly surgical patients, delayed surgery, frailty, presence of perforations, the male sex, and age were the main risk factors for mortality. In contrast, the regression model for adult patients with no surgery found hospital length of stay to be the main risk factor for mortality, whereas invasive diagnostic procedures were protective. In elderly non-surgical patients, hospital length of stay, presence of perforations, age, and frailty were the main risk factors for mortality, while invasive diagnostic procedures were protective. The following comorbidities were associated with gastric ulcers: alcohol abuse, deficiency anemias, chronic blood loss, chronic heart failure, chronic pulmonary disease, hypertension, fluid/electrolyte disorders, uncomplicated diabetes, and renal failure. Conclusions: The odds of mortality in emergently admitted geriatric patients with acute gastric ulcer was two times that in adult patients. Surgery was a protective factor for patients admitted emergently with gastric perforated non-hemorrhagic ulcers.