State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China.
State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing 100084, China.
J Environ Sci (China). 2023 Jan;123:281-291. doi: 10.1016/j.jes.2022.04.008. Epub 2022 Apr 14.
PM concentrations have dramatically reduced in key regions of China during the period 2013-2017, while O has increased. Hence there is an urgent demand to develop a synergetic regional PM and O control strategy. This study develops an emission-to-concentration response surface model and proposes a synergetic pathway for PM and O control in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) based on the framework of the Air Benefit and Cost and Attainment Assessment System (ABaCAS). Results suggest that the regional emissions of NOx, SO, NH, VOCs (volatile organic compounds) and primary PM should be reduced by 18%, 23%, 14%, 17% and 33% compared with 2017 to achieve 25% and 5% decreases of PM and O in 2025, and that the emission reduction ratios will need to be 50%, 26%, 28%, 28% and 55% to attain the National Ambient Air Quality Standard. To effectively reduce the O pollution in the central and eastern YRD, VOCs controls need to be strengthened to reduce O by 5%, and then NOx reduction should be accelerated for air quality attainment. Meanwhile, control of primary PM emissions shall be prioritized to address the severe PM pollution in the northern YRD. For most cities in the YRD, the VOCs emission reduction ratio should be higher than that for NOx in Spring and Autumn. NOx control should be increased in summer rather than winter when a strong VOC-limited regime occurs. Besides, regarding the emission control of industrial processes, on-road vehicle and residential sources shall be prioritized and the joint control area should be enlarged to include Shandong, Jiangxi and Hubei Province for effective O control.
2013 年至 2017 年期间，中国重点区域的 PM 浓度显著下降，而 O 浓度有所上升。因此，迫切需要制定协同区域 PM 和 O 控制策略。本研究基于空气效益和成本及达标评估系统（ABaCAS）框架，开发了排放-浓度响应面模型，并提出了长三角（YRD）地区 PM 和 O 协同控制途径。结果表明，与 2017 年相比，2025 年长三角区域 NOx、SO、NH、VOCs（挥发性有机化合物）和一次 PM 的排放量需分别减少 18%、23%、14%、17%和 33%，才可实现 PM 和 O 浓度分别降低 25%和 5%，且要达到国家环境空气质量标准，减排比例需分别达到 50%、26%、28%、28%和 55%。为有效降低长三角中东部地区的 O 污染，需要加强 VOCs 控制以减少 5%的 O，然后加速减少 NOx 以达到空气质量标准。同时，应优先控制一次 PM 排放，以解决长三角北部地区严重的 PM 污染问题。对于长三角地区的大多数城市，春、秋两季 VOCs 的减排比例应高于 NOx；当出现强 VOC 限制的情况时，夏季应增加 NOx 控制，而不是冬季。此外，对于工业过程、机动车和居民源的排放控制，应优先考虑，并扩大联合控制区，包括山东、江西和湖北省，以有效控制 O。
