Libório Matheus Pereira, Ekel Petr Iakovlevitch, da Silva Martins Carlos Augusto Paiva
Pontifical Catholic University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, 30535-012 Brazil.
Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, 31270-901 Brazil.
SN Bus Econ. 2023;3(1):3. doi: 10.1007/s43546-022-00387-z. Epub 2022 Dec 5.
Alternative data are now widely used in economic analyses worldwide but still infrequent in studies on the Brazilian economy. This research demonstrates how alternative data extracted from Google Trends and Google Mobility contribute to innovative economic analysis. First, it demonstrates that the search for the future on the internet is correlated ( = 0.62) with the average household income in Brazilian states. The three Brazilian states with the most people looking for the future on the internet have an average household income 1.6 times higher than people from states that do not have this behavior. The search for the future represents 10.9% of the economic development potential of the states, while the proportion of people with university degrees, scientific publications, and researchers represents another 60.4%. The reduction in mobility in retail/recreation locations averaged 34.28% in Brazil, Ecuador, Paraguay, and Uruguay. This group of countries had COVID-19 infection and death rates 1.25 and 1.74 times higher than in countries that reduced their mobility in retail/recreation locations by 45.03%. The impact of reduced mobility in retail/recreation locations on the unemployment rate, gross domestic product degrowth, and inflation in countries such as Brazil was 1.1, 2.2, and 2.6 times lower than in countries that reduced mobility more of people. The research contributions are associated with identifying new indicators extracted from alternative data and their application to carry out innovative economic analyses.
替代数据目前在全球经济分析中被广泛使用，但在巴西经济研究中仍然很少见。本研究展示了从谷歌趋势和谷歌移动性中提取的替代数据如何有助于创新经济分析。首先，研究表明在互联网上对未来的搜索与巴西各州的家庭平均收入相关（相关系数为0.62）。在互联网上搜索未来的人数最多的三个巴西州的家庭平均收入比没有这种行为的州的人高出1.6倍。对未来的搜索占各州经济发展潜力的10.9%，而拥有大学学位、科学出版物和研究人员的人口比例占另外60.4%。巴西、厄瓜多尔、巴拉圭和乌拉圭零售/娱乐场所的流动性平均下降了34.28%。这组国家的新冠病毒感染率和死亡率分别比零售/娱乐场所流动性下降45.03%的国家高1.25倍和1.74倍。巴西等国家零售/娱乐场所流动性下降对失业率、国内生产总值负增长和通货膨胀的影响分别比流动性下降更多的国家低1.1倍、2.2倍和2.6倍。本研究的贡献在于识别从替代数据中提取的新指标及其在进行创新经济分析中的应用。
