Wang Gang, Zhang Dongjing, Khan Jehangir, Guo Jiatian, Feng Qingdeng, Sun Yan, Li Beiqing, Wu Yu, Wu Zhongdao, Zheng Xiaoying
Department of Parasitology, Key Laboratory of Tropical Disease Control of the Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
CAEA Center of Excellence on Nuclear Technology Applications for Insect Control, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510080, China.
Trop Med Infect Dis. 2022 Dec 12;7(12):431. doi: 10.3390/tropicalmed7120431.
The geographic boundaries of arboviruses continue to expand, posing a major health threat to millions of people around the world. This expansion is related to the availability of effective vectors and suitable habitats. Armigeres subalbatus (Coquillett, 1898), a common and neglected species, is of increasing interest given its potential vector capacity for Zika virus. However, potential distribution patterns and the underlying driving factors of Ar. subalbatus remain unknown. In the current study, detailed maps of their potential distributions were developed under both the current as well as future climate change scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) based on CMIP6 data, employing the MaxEnt model. The results showed that the distribution of the Ar. subalbatus was mainly affected by temperature. Mean diurnal range was the strongest predictor in shaping the distribution of Ar. subalbatus, with an 85.2% contribution rate. By the 2050s and 2070s, Ar. subalbatus will have a broader potential distribution across China. There are two suitable expansion types under climate change in the 2050s and 2070s. The first type is continuous distribution expansion, and the second type is sporadic distribution expansion. Our comprehensive analysis of Ar. subalbatus’s suitable distribution areas shifts under climate change and provides useful and insightful information for developing management strategies for future arboviruses.
虫媒病毒的地理边界持续扩大，对全球数百万人构成重大健康威胁。这种扩大与有效病媒的存在和适宜栖息地有关。白纹伊蚊（Coquillett，1898年）是一种常见且被忽视的物种，鉴于其作为寨卡病毒潜在病媒的能力，正受到越来越多的关注。然而，白纹伊蚊的潜在分布模式及其潜在驱动因素仍不为人所知。在本研究中，基于CMIP6数据，利用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）绘制了当前以及未来气候变化情景（SSP126和SSP585）下其潜在分布的详细地图。结果表明，白纹伊蚊分布主要受温度影响。日平均温差是塑造白纹伊蚊分布的最强预测因子，贡献率达85.2%。到2050年代和2070年代，白纹伊蚊在中国的潜在分布范围将更广。在2050年代和2070年代的气候变化下，有两种适宜的扩张类型。第一种是连续分布扩张，第二种是零星分布扩张。我们对白纹伊蚊在气候变化下适宜分布区的变化进行了综合分析，为制定未来虫媒病毒的管理策略提供了有用且有见地的信息。
