Department of Health Science, Korea University, Anam-ro 145, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea.
Department of Health and Safety Convergence Science, Korea University, Anam-ro 145, Seongbuk-gu, Seoul 02841, Korea.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2019 Sep 5;16(18):3271. doi: 10.3390/ijerph16183271.
To reduce damage caused by chemical accidents, it is important to establish a prevention system for chemical accidents. The first step in the prevention of chemical accidents is to screen the high-risk chemical plants. Risk index, one of the screening methods, can indirectly estimate the risk at each chemical plant. For calculating the risk index, the probability of an accident needs to be estimated, which requires complex calculation and confidential data from plants that are difficult to obtain. Therefore, we developed a new index, the accident probability index, to estimate accident probability in chemical plants using readily accessible data. We conducted a literature survey on the existing risk indices and interviewed chemical experts and government chemical managers to select surrogate indicators related to chemical accidents, and four indicators were chosen: hazardous characteristics of chemicals, handling volume, records of accident frequency, and national accident frequency of chemicals. We calculated the accident probability index for 4520 chemical plants, and index value means was 5.324 (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.156, 7.493). An increase by 10 in the index value denoted a 1.06-fold (95% CI: 1.04, 1.08) increase in the odds ratio for actual accident occurrence. The accident frequency of the fourth quartile of the index value was 4.30 times (95% CI: 1.72, 10.75) higher than those of the first quartile.
为了减少化学事故造成的损失，建立化学事故预防体系非常重要。化学事故预防的第一步是筛选高危化工企业。风险指数是筛选方法之一，它可以间接估计每个化工企业的风险。在计算风险指数时，需要估计事故发生的概率，这需要复杂的计算和化工企业难以获得的机密数据。因此，我们开发了一种新的指数，即事故概率指数，利用易于获得的数据来估计化工企业的事故概率。我们对现有的风险指数进行了文献调查，并采访了化工专家和政府化工管理人员，以选择与化学事故相关的替代指标，最终选择了四个指标：化学品的危险特性、处理量、事故频率记录和国家化学品事故频率。我们计算了 4520 家化工企业的事故概率指数，指数值平均值为 5.324（95%置信区间：3.156，7.493）。指数值增加 10，实际事故发生的比值比增加 1.06 倍（95%置信区间：1.04，1.08）。指数值第四四分位数的事故频率比第一四分位数高 4.30 倍（95%置信区间：1.72，10.75）。
