Marketing Department, The Wharton School, The University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, United States of America.
Management Department, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston, IL, United States of America.
PLoS One. 2022 Dec 28;17(12):e0277934. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0277934. eCollection 2022.
Countless social problems demand solutions, from climate change and gun control to poverty and systemic racism. But while some of these problems inspire action (e.g., "Black Lives Matter" and "Me Too" movements), most fail to gain traction or inspire new policy. Why do some problems garner more attention and response? We suggest that the relative timing of related events may play an important role. Specifically, action may be more likely when related events are concentrated in time. A multi-method investigation tests this possibility. Study 1 borrows a modeling strategy from the economics and marketing literatures to examine a particularly important domain: gun control. Analysis of over 40 years of gun control legislation finds that, even after controlling for the frequency of mass shootings, bills are more likely to be proposed (and passed) when shootings are concentrated in time. Study 2 further tests concentration's causal impact and demonstrates that concentration increases support against sexual assault. These findings illustrate how a modeling approach commonly used to study advertising goodwill can be applied to a broader set of situations, suggest why some social problems are more likely to catalyze action, and shed light on drivers of social movements and collective action.
无数的社会问题需要解决方案，从气候变化和枪支管制到贫困和系统性种族主义。但尽管其中一些问题引发了行动（例如，“黑人的命也是命”和“我也是”运动），但大多数问题都没有得到关注或激发新的政策。为什么有些问题引起了更多的关注和回应？我们认为，相关事件的相对时间可能起着重要作用。具体来说，当相关事件集中在一段时间内时，采取行动的可能性就越大。一项多方法调查检验了这种可能性。研究 1 借鉴了经济学和营销文献中的建模策略，考察了一个特别重要的领域：枪支管制。对 40 多年的枪支管制立法的分析发现，即使在控制大规模枪击事件的频率之后，当枪击事件集中在一段时间内时，提出（并通过）法案的可能性更大。研究 2 进一步检验了集中的因果影响，并表明集中会增加对性侵犯的反对。这些发现说明了通常用于研究广告信誉的建模方法如何应用于更广泛的情况，表明了为什么一些社会问题更容易引发行动，并揭示了社会运动和集体行动的驱动因素。
