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分析曲线和坡度对山区高速公路多车卡车碰撞严重程度的影响。

Analyzing the impact of curve and slope on multi-vehicle truck crash severity on mountainous freeways.

机构信息

School of Civil Engineering and Transportation, South China University of Technology, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510641 PR China.

Guangzhou Transport Planning Research Institute Co., LTD, Guangzhou, Guangdong 510030 PR China.

出版信息

Accid Anal Prev. 2023 Mar;181:106951. doi: 10.1016/j.aap.2022.106951. Epub 2022 Dec 29.

Abstract

Many studies examine the road characteristics that impact the severity of truck crash accidents. However, some only analyze the effect of curves or slopes separately, ignoring their combination. Therefore, there are nine types of the combination of curve and slope in this study. The combination of curve and slope factor that affected the injury severity of truck crashes on mountainous freeways was examined using a correlated random parameter logit model. This method is applied to evaluate the correlation between the random parameters and those that exhibit unobserved heterogeneity. Also, the multinomial logit model and traditional random parameter logit model are used. The study's data were collected from multi-vehicle truck crashes on mountainous freeways in China. The results showed that the correlated random parameters logit model was better than the others. In addition, they demonstrated a correlation between the random parameters. Based on the estimation coefficients and marginal effects, the combination of curve and slope has a great influence on the injury severity of truck crashes. The main finding is that curve with medium radius and medium slope will significantly increase the probability of medium severity comparing to curve with high radius and flat slope. On the other hand, the injury severity of truck accidents was significantly impacted by crash type, vehicle type, surface condition, time of day, season, lighting condition, pavement type, and guardrail. Variables such as sideswipe, head-on, medium trucks, morning, dawn or dusk and summertime reduced the probability of truck crashes. Rollover, winter, gravel, and guardrail variables increased the risk of truck crashes. Correlations were also discovered between a rollover and dry surface condition and rollover and gravel pavement type. The research findings will help traffic officials determine effective countermeasures to decrease the severity of truck crashes on mountainous freeways.

摘要

许多研究都考察了影响卡车碰撞事故严重程度的道路特征。然而,有些研究仅分别分析曲线或坡度的影响,而忽略了它们的组合。因此,本研究共考虑了九种曲线和坡度的组合类型。采用相关随机参数对数模型,研究了曲线和坡度组合因素对山区高速公路卡车碰撞事故伤害严重程度的影响。该方法用于评估随机参数与表现出未观察到的异质性的参数之间的相关性。同时,还应用了多项对数模型和传统的随机参数对数模型。研究数据来自中国山区高速公路多车卡车碰撞事故。结果表明,相关随机参数对数模型优于其他模型。此外,研究结果还表明随机参数之间存在相关性。基于估计系数和边际效应,曲线和坡度的组合对卡车碰撞事故伤害严重程度有很大影响。主要发现是,中等半径和中等坡度的曲线与高半径和平坦坡度的曲线相比,会显著增加中度严重程度的概率。另一方面,碰撞类型、车辆类型、路面状况、一天中的时间、季节、照明条件、路面类型和护栏等因素显著影响卡车事故的伤害严重程度。侧面碰撞、正面碰撞、中型卡车、早晨、黎明或黄昏和夏季等变量降低了卡车碰撞的概率。翻车、冬季、砾石和护栏等变量增加了卡车碰撞的风险。还发现翻车与干燥路面状况以及翻车与砾石路面类型之间存在相关性。研究结果将有助于交通管理人员确定有效的对策,以降低山区高速公路上卡车碰撞事故的严重程度。

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