Taghizadeh-Diva Seyed Esmail, Khosravi Ahmad, Zolfaghari Sepideh, Hosseinzadeh Ali
Student Research Committee, School of Public Health, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences, Shahroud, Iran; Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences, Shahroud, Iran.
Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Shahroud University of Medical Sciences, Shahroud, Iran.
Mult Scler Relat Disord. 2023 Feb;70:104469. doi: 10.1016/j.msard.2022.104469. Epub 2022 Dec 15.
In recent years dramatic changes in multiple sclerosis (MS) incidence have been reported in different provinces in Iran. This study was conducted to assess MS incidence temporal trends from March 21, 2005, to March 20, 2020, and provide a forecast until the end of 2025 in Shahroud county.
This longitudinal study was carried out based on the data obtained from the MS registration system in Shahroud county. First, the annual incidence rates were calculated based on the year of diagnosis and smoothed using the Empirical Bayesian Method. Then temporal trends and annual percent change (APC) of MS incidence were analyzed using Joinpoint (JP) regression. Finally, the univariate time series model analysis was used to estimate the MS incidence trend until the end of 2025.
A total of 234 newly diagnosed cases (60 [25.64%] males and 174 [74.36.4%] females) were examined in this study. The mean age of patients at the time of diagnosis was 31.40 ± 3.78. It was 32.01 ± 6.35 and 30.66 ± 4.27 years for males and females, respectively (P<0.22). The mean annual MS incidence was 5.99 ± 1.46, 3.03 ± 0.21, and 8.98 ± 2.79 per 100,000 in overall, males and females respectively. The MS incidence increased significantly from 5.67 (95% CI: 3.63-7.99) in 2005 to 7.58 (95% CI: 5.17-10.28) in 2020 with an APC of 4.5 (2.8 - 6.1). The MS incidence had a non-linear time trend in the study period and the best time trend fitted to the annual MS incidence trend was the non-linear quadratic curve. Based on this model, the annual MS incidence is expected to increase until the end of 2025.
Shahroud county is one of the high-risk areas for MS and the increasing trend of MS incidence in it is similar to regional and global changes. This study, also, showed that MS incidence in Shahroud county will be increasing in the coming years.
近年来，伊朗不同省份的多发性硬化症（MS）发病率出现了显著变化。本研究旨在评估2005年3月21日至2020年3月20日期间沙赫鲁德县MS发病率的时间趋势，并对2025年底前的情况进行预测。
本纵向研究基于从沙赫鲁德县MS登记系统获得的数据进行。首先，根据诊断年份计算年发病率，并使用经验贝叶斯方法进行平滑处理。然后，使用Joinpoint（JP）回归分析MS发病率的时间趋势和年变化百分比（APC）。最后，使用单变量时间序列模型分析来估计2025年底前的MS发病率趋势。
本研究共检查了234例新诊断病例（男性60例[25.64%]，女性174例[74.36%]）。诊断时患者的平均年龄为31.40±3.78岁。男性和女性的平均年龄分别为32.01±6.35岁和30.66±4.27岁（P<0.22）。总体、男性和女性的年平均MS发病率分别为每10万人5.99±1.46例、3.03±0.21例和8.98±2.79例。MS发病率从2005年的5.67（95%CI：3.63 - 7.99）显著增加到2020年的7.58（95%CI：5.17 - 10.28），APC为4.5（2.8 - 6.1）。在研究期间，MS发病率呈非线性时间趋势，与年MS发病率趋势拟合最佳的时间趋势是非线性二次曲线。基于该模型，预计到2025年底前MS年发病率将持续上升。
沙赫鲁德县是MS的高风险地区之一，其MS发病率的上升趋势与区域和全球变化相似。本研究还表明，未来几年沙赫鲁德县的MS发病率将持续上升。
