Frontiers Science Center for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China.
Laoshan Laboratory, Qingdao, China.
Nat Commun. 2023 Jan 3;14(1):28. doi: 10.1038/s41467-022-35666-8.
Marine heatwaves (MHWs) exert devastating impacts on ecosystems and have been revealed to increase in their incidence, duration, and intensity in response to greenhouse warming. The biologically productive eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUSs) are generally regarded as thermal refugia for marine species due to buffering effects of upwelling on ocean warming. However, using an ensemble of state-of-the-art high-resolution global climate simulations under a high carbon emission scenario, here we show that the MHW stress, measured as the annual cumulative intensity of MHWs, is projected to increase faster in the Southern Hemisphere EBUSs (Humboldt and Benguela current systems) than in their adjacent oceans. This is mainly because the additional warming caused by the weakened eastern boundary currents overwhelms the buffering effect of upwelling. Our findings suggest that the Southern Hemisphere EBUSs will emerge as local hotspots of MHWs in the future, potentially causing severe threats to the ecosystems.
海洋热浪（MHWs）对生态系统造成了毁灭性的影响，并且已经证实，随着温室气体的变暖，它们的发生频率、持续时间和强度都在增加。由于上升流对海洋变暖的缓冲作用，生物生产力高的东部边界上升流系统（EBUSs）通常被认为是海洋物种的热避难所。然而，我们利用一系列最先进的高分辨率全球气候模拟在高碳排放情景下进行计算，结果表明，海洋热浪的压力，以海洋热浪的年累积强度来衡量，预计在南半球的 EBUSs（洪堡和本格拉海流系统）比在其相邻的海洋中增加得更快。这主要是因为东部边界流的减弱所导致的额外升温超过了上升流的缓冲作用。我们的研究结果表明，南半球的 EBUSs 将成为未来海洋热浪的局部热点，可能对生态系统造成严重威胁。
