School of Management, Shanghai University, Shanghai, China.
School of Social and Public Administration, East China University of Science and Technology, Shanghai, China.
PLoS One. 2023 Jan 10;18(1):e0280235. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0280235. eCollection 2023.
Home-purchase limit is a unique administrative housing policy of China and has non-negligible influences on the housing price. The objective of this study is to analyze the spillover effect of home-purchase limit policy on housing prices in 35 large and medium-sized cities. The panel data of these cities and the spatial Durbin model are employed in this study. The results indicate that the spillover effect of home-purchase limit policy is positive and significant in all of 35 cities. However, when we categorize these cities into high-risk, medium-risk, and low-risk based on housing price characteristics, the spillover effect of home-purchase limit policy is different. It is not significant in high-risk cities, is negatively significant in medium-risk cities, and is positively significant in low-risk cities. This paper suggests that local governments can pay more attention to the precise design and implementation of home-purchase limit policy, and maintain policy continuity to avoid further spillover fluctuations in housing prices.
购房限制是中国特有的行政住房政策，对房价有不可忽视的影响。本研究旨在分析购房限制政策对 35 个大中城市房价的溢出效应。本研究采用这些城市的面板数据和空间杜宾模型。结果表明，购房限制政策的溢出效应在所有 35 个城市中均为正且显著。然而，当我们根据房价特征将这些城市分为高风险、中风险和低风险时，购房限制政策的溢出效应则有所不同。在高风险城市中不显著，在中风险城市中呈负向显著，在低风险城市中呈正向显著。本文建议地方政府更加关注购房限制政策的精确设计和实施，并保持政策的连续性，以避免房价进一步溢出波动。
