School of Public Administration and Policy, Renmin University of China, Beijing, 100872, China.
Northeast Institute of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun, 130102, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2024 Jul;31(34):46703-46721. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-30203-6. Epub 2023 Oct 13.
The low-carbon transformation is a broad and profound systemic change that will inevitably impact many areas of the urban environment, economy, and social system. We evaluated the impact of China's ongoing "low-carbon pilot policy" on urban housing prices as a "quasi-natural experiment." Existing research findings and hedonic theory predictions suggest that the low-carbon city pilot (LCCP) policy is increasing urban housing prices through air quality improvements. However, this study contradicts these speculations based on the situation in China. This study employed the analytical framework of staggered difference-in-differences (DID), which revealed that the LCCP policy had generally reduced housing prices; the implementation of the policy had led to an average decrease of 6.2% in housing prices in pilot cities, compared to non-pilot cities. The LCCP policy affected housing prices by influencing both the "demand side" and "supply side" of housing. In terms of the demand side, the policy significantly reduced the level of urban air pollution but did not impact housing prices. Instead, it negatively affected housing prices by lowering labor wages. In terms of the supply side, housing prices were negatively affected, mainly by increasing the cost of emission reduction of real estate enterprises, which impacted the original longstanding housing production process. Additionally, there were significant differences in the impact of the LCCP policy on housing prices in cities across different geographical locations and different tiers of cities. This study suggests important policy insights for achieving stable market housing prices and promoting high-quality urban development in the process of low-carbon transformation.
低碳转型是一场广泛而深刻的系统性变革，必然会对城市环境、经济和社会系统的许多领域产生影响。我们评估了中国正在进行的“低碳试点政策”对城市住房价格的影响，将其视为一项“准自然实验”。现有研究结果和享乐理论预测表明，低碳城市试点（LCCP）政策通过改善空气质量来提高城市住房价格。然而，这项研究基于中国的情况，与这些推测相悖。本研究采用了交错双重差分（DID）的分析框架，结果表明，LCCP 政策总体上降低了住房价格；与非试点城市相比，试点城市实施该政策导致住房价格平均下降了 6.2%。LCCP 政策通过影响住房的“需求侧”和“供给侧”来影响房价。在需求侧，该政策显著降低了城市空气污染水平，但并未对房价产生影响。相反，它通过降低劳动力工资对房价产生负面影响。在供给侧，房价受到负面影响，主要是因为房地产企业减排成本增加，这影响了原有的长期住房生产过程。此外，LCCP 政策对不同地理位置和不同层级城市的住房价格的影响存在显著差异。本研究为实现稳定的市场住房价格和在低碳转型过程中促进高质量城市发展提供了重要的政策见解。
