College of Atmospheric Sciences, Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate Change, Ministry of Education, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, 730000, China.
Environ Geochem Health. 2023 Jun;45(6):4043-4056. doi: 10.1007/s10653-023-01483-1. Epub 2023 Jan 12.
The effect of ambient temperature on health continues to draw more and more attention with the global warming. Bacillary dysentery (BD) is a major global environmental health issue and affected by temperature and other environmental variables. In the current study, we evaluated the effect of temperature on the incidence of BD from January 1st, 2008 to December 31st, 2011 in Jiayuguan, a temperate continental arid climate city in the Hexi Corridor of northwest China. A distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was performed to evaluate the lag effect of temperature on BD up to 30 days. Results showed the risk of BD increased with temperature significantly, especially after 8 °C. The maximum risk of BD was observed at extreme high temperature (29 °C). The effect of temperature on BD risk was significantly divided into short-term effect at lag 5 days and long-term effect at lag 30 days. Age ≤ 15 years were most affected by high temperature. The maximum cumulative risk for lag 30 days (25.8, 95% CIs: 11.8-50.1) was observed at 29 °C. Age ≤ 15 years and females showed short-term effect at lag 5 days and long-term effect at lag 30 days, while age > 15 years and males showed acute short-term effect at lag 0 and light long-term effect at lag 16 days.
随着全球变暖，环境温度对健康的影响越来越受到关注。细菌性痢疾（BD）是一个主要的全球环境健康问题，受温度和其他环境变量的影响。在本研究中，我们评估了 2008 年 1 月 1 日至 2011 年 12 月 31 日期间，中国西北部河西走廊温带大陆性干旱气候城市嘉峪关的温度对 BD 发病率的影响。采用分布滞后非线性模型（DLNM）评估温度对 BD 的滞后效应长达 30 天。结果表明，BD 的风险随着温度的升高而显著增加，尤其是在 8°C 之后。BD 的最大风险出现在极端高温（29°C）。温度对 BD 风险的影响明显分为短期滞后 5 天和长期滞后 30 天。年龄≤15 岁的人群受高温影响最大。滞后 30 天的最大累积风险（25.8，95%CI：11.8-50.1）出现在 29°C。年龄≤15 岁的人群在滞后 5 天和滞后 30 天均表现出短期效应，而年龄>15 岁的人群在滞后 0 天表现出急性短期效应，在滞后 16 天表现出轻微的长期效应。
