Wen Li-ying, Zhao Ke-fu, Cheng Jian, Wang Xu, Yang Hui-hui, Li Ke-sheng, Xu Zhi-wei, Su Hong
Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei, 230032, Anhui, China.
Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Anhui Province, Hefei, 230061, Anhui, China.
Int J Biometeorol. 2016 Feb;60(2):269-76. doi: 10.1007/s00484-015-1023-9. Epub 2015 Jun 5.
Previous studies have found that mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures were associated with bacillary dysentery (BD). However, little is known about whether the within-day variation of temperature has any impact on bacillary dysentery. The current study aimed to identify the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and BD in Hefei, China. Daily data on BD counts among children aged 0-14 years from 1 January 2006 to 31 December 2012 were retrieved from Hefei Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Daily data on ambient temperature and relative humidity covering the same period were collected from the Hefei Bureau of Meteorology. A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used in the analysis after controlling the effects of season, long-term trends, mean temperature, and relative humidity. The results showed that there existed a statistically significant relationship between DTR and childhood BD. The DTR effect on childhood bacillary dysentery increased when DTR was over 8 °C. And it was greatest at 1-day lag, with an 8% (95% CI = 2.9-13.4%) increase of BD cases per 5 °C increment of DTR. Male children and children aged 0-5 years appeared to be more vulnerable to the DTR effect. The data indicate that large DTR may increase the incidence of childhood BD. Caregivers and health practitioners should be made aware of the potential threat posed by large DTR. Therefore, DTR should be taken into consideration when making targeted health policies and programs to protect children from being harmed by climate impacts.
以往研究发现,平均、最高和最低温度与细菌性痢疾(BD)有关。然而,关于温度的日内变化是否对细菌性痢疾有任何影响,人们知之甚少。本研究旨在确定中国合肥地区日较差(DTR)与细菌性痢疾之间的关系。从合肥疾病预防控制中心获取了2006年1月1日至2012年12月31日期间0至14岁儿童细菌性痢疾病例数的每日数据。从合肥气象局收集了同一时期的环境温度和相对湿度的每日数据。在控制了季节、长期趋势、平均温度和相对湿度的影响后,采用泊松广义线性回归模型结合分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)进行分析。结果表明,DTR与儿童细菌性痢疾之间存在统计学上的显著关系。当DTR超过8℃时,DTR对儿童细菌性痢疾的影响增加。在滞后1天时影响最大,DTR每增加5℃,细菌性痢疾病例增加8%(95%CI = 2.9-13.4%)。男童和0至5岁儿童似乎更容易受到DTR的影响。数据表明,较大的DTR可能会增加儿童细菌性痢疾的发病率。应让护理人员和卫生从业人员意识到较大DTR带来的潜在威胁。因此,在制定有针对性的卫生政策和计划以保护儿童免受气候影响伤害时,应考虑DTR。