Han Mengyao, Sun Ruyi, Feng Ping, Hua Ershi
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, PR China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, PR China; Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance (C-EENRG), University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3QZ, United Kingdom.
School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences Beijing, Beijing 100083, China.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Apr 1;331:117215. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117215. Epub 2023 Jan 14.
The temporal and spatial patterns of wind power installation and the evaluation of carbon emission reduction potentials are of great significance to promoting China's wind power development planning and dual carbon targets achievement. This study analyzes the temporal and spatial characteristics, identifies main driving factors, and measures carbon emission reduction potentials of China's wind power installation by province based on spatial autocorrelation analysis and spatial econometric model. Overall, China's wind power installed capacity increased rapidly from 346 MW in 2000 to 279,550 MW in 2020, basically showing a significant positive spatial correlation during 2000 and 2020. Regarding driving factors of wind power installation, the technological factors and environmental factors were the main positive factors for wind power installation, and the economic factors and resource endowments showed positive spatial spillover effects. Regarding carbon emission reduction potentials, the carbon emission reduction potentials of China's wind power installation increased by year, among which Northwest China gradually accelerated Northeast China after 2015. Based on China's wind power evolution characteristics and carbon emission reduction potentials, this study attempts to provide quantitative supports and policy implications to promote sustainable development of wind power industry and the achievement of carbon peak and carbon neutrality within China.
风电装机的时空格局及碳排放减排潜力评估对于推动中国风电发展规划和实现双碳目标具有重要意义。本研究基于空间自相关分析和空间计量模型，分析中国风电装机的时空特征，识别主要驱动因素，并测算各省风电装机的碳排放减排潜力。总体而言，中国风电装机容量从2000年的346兆瓦迅速增长至2020年的279550兆瓦，在2000年至2020年期间基本呈现出显著的正空间相关性。关于风电装机的驱动因素，技术因素和环境因素是风电装机的主要正向因素，经济因素和资源禀赋呈现出正空间溢出效应。关于碳排放减排潜力，中国风电装机的碳排放减排潜力逐年增加，其中中国西北地区在2015年后逐渐加速，东北地区紧随其后。基于中国风电发展特征和碳排放减排潜力，本研究试图为推动中国风电产业可持续发展以及实现碳达峰和碳中和提供定量支持和政策启示。
