Holm Rochelle H, Rempala Grzegorz A, Choi Boseung, Brick J Michael, Amraotkar Alok R, Keith Rachel J, Rouchka Eric C, Chariker Julia H, Palmer Kenneth E, Smith Ted, Bhatnagar Aruni
Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute, School of Medicine, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40202, USA.
These authors contributed equally: Rochelle H Holm, Grzegorz A Rempala, Boseung Choi.
medRxiv. 2023 Nov 28:2023.01.06.23284260. doi: 10.1101/2023.01.06.23284260.
Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale SARS-CoV-2 vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates. We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021-August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible , vaccinated , variant-specific infected and , recovered , and seropositive model tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration. The 64% county vaccination rate translated into about 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence was a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which corresponded to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration had the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag. Our study underscores the importance of continued environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness.
尽管进行了大规模评估，但仍不清楚大规模接种新冠病毒疫苗如何影响病毒在废水中的浓度，或如何影响以住院率衡量的总体疾病负担。我们使用了2021年4月至2021年8月美国肯塔基州杰斐逊县每周的新冠病毒废水浓度，并结合了血清阳性率的分层随机抽样，以及疫苗接种和住院数据。我们的易感、接种、特定变异株感染、康复和血清阳性模型纵向跟踪了患病率。这与废水浓度相关。该县64%的疫苗接种率使新冠病毒发病率下降了约61%。新冠病毒德尔塔变异株出现的估计影响是感染病例数增加了24倍，这相当于废水浓度增加了9倍多。住院负担与废水浓度在滞后1周时的相关性最强（r = 0.95）。我们的研究强调了疫苗接种后持续进行环境监测的重要性，并为未来大流行防范中传染病的环境流行病学监测提供了概念验证。
