Snell Maria, Baillie Andrew, Berrow Simon, Deaville Robert, Penrose Rod, Perkins Matthew, Williams Ruth, Simmonds Mark P
Bristol Veterinary School, University of Bristol, Langford, Bristol BS40 5DU, UK.
Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
Mar Pollut Bull. 2023 Feb;187:114565. doi: 10.1016/j.marpolbul.2022.114565. Epub 2023 Jan 18.
Climate change is predicted to impact the distribution of many marine species. In the North-East Atlantic and elsewhere in the world, studies indicate that climate change is leading to poleward shifts in cetacean distribution. Here, strandings data collected in the British Isles from 1990 to 2020 were used to assess whether there is evidence of a shift in baleen whale distribution. Linear regression models were used to compare the number of strandings over time between six regions of the British Isles and, whilst the results indicate no significant change in the number of strandings in the most southerly region of the British Isles, there have been significant increases in more northern regions. Data related to stranded minke whales is the primary driver of these increases, with a number of potential variables affecting this trend, including observer effort. These variables are discussed and further research to explore this potential association is suggested.
据预测，气候变化将影响许多海洋物种的分布。在东北大西洋及世界其他地区，研究表明气候变化正导致鲸类分布向极地转移。在此，利用1990年至2020年在不列颠群岛收集的搁浅数据来评估是否有须鲸分布发生转移的证据。使用线性回归模型比较了不列颠群岛六个地区随时间的搁浅数量，虽然结果表明不列颠群岛最南端地区的搁浅数量没有显著变化，但更北部地区的搁浅数量有显著增加。与搁浅小须鲸相关的数据是这些增加的主要驱动因素，有许多潜在变量影响这一趋势，包括观测力度。对这些变量进行了讨论，并建议进一步开展研究以探索这种潜在关联。
