Zhang Wenxia, Zhou Tianjun
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China.
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China.
Sci Bull (Beijing). 2020 Feb 15;65(3):243-252. doi: 10.1016/j.scib.2019.12.002. Epub 2019 Dec 5.
Precipitation-related extremes are among the most impact-relevant consequences of a warmer climate, particularly for China, a region vulnerable to global warming and with a large population. Understanding the impacts and risks induced by future extreme precipitation changes is critical for mitigation and adaptation planning. Here, extreme precipitation changes under different levels of global warming and their associated impacts on populations in China are investigated using multimodel climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and population projections under Shared Socio-economic Pathways. Heavy precipitation would intensify with warming across China at a rate of 6.52% (5.22%-8.57%) per degree of global warming. The longest dry spell length would increase (decrease) south (north) of ~34°N. The low warming target of the Paris Agreement could substantially reduce the extreme precipitation related impacts compared to higher warming levels. For the area weighted average changes, the intensification in wet extremes could be reduced by 3.22%, 9.42% and 16.70% over China, and the lengthening of dry spells could be reduced by 0.72%, 4.75% and 5.31% in southeastern China, respectively, if global warming is limited to 1.5 °C as compared to 2, 3 and 4 °C. The Southeastern China is the hotspot of enhanced impacts due to the dense population. The impacts on populations induced by extreme precipitation changes are dominated by climate change, while future population redistribution plays a minor role.
与降水相关的极端事件是气候变暖影响最为显著的后果之一，对中国而言尤为如此。中国是一个易受全球变暖影响且人口众多的地区。了解未来极端降水变化所引发的影响和风险对于减灾和适应规划至关重要。在此，利用耦合模式比较计划第5阶段的多模式气候预测以及共享社会经济路径下的人口预测，研究了不同全球变暖水平下中国极端降水的变化及其对人口的相关影响。随着全球变暖，中国各地的强降水将加剧，升温每增加1摄氏度，强降水加剧速率为6.52%（5.22%-8.57%）。在北纬34°以南，最长连续无雨期将增加；在北纬34°以北，最长连续无雨期将减少。与更高的变暖水平相比，《巴黎协定》设定的低变暖目标可大幅降低与极端降水相关的影响。就面积加权平均变化而言，如果全球变暖限制在1.5℃，与2℃、3℃和4℃相比，中国强降水事件加剧程度分别可降低3.22%、9.42%和16.70%，中国东南部最长连续无雨期延长幅度分别可降低0.72%、4.75%和5.31%。中国东南部由于人口密集，是影响增强的热点地区。极端降水变化对人口的影响主要由气候变化主导，而未来人口重新分布的作用较小。
