Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Faculty of Geographical Science, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Education/Ministry of Civil Affairs, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; Faculty of Geographical Science, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Education/Ministry of Civil Affairs, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2020 Dec 1;746:140807. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140807. Epub 2020 Jul 7.
Paris Agreement's 1.5 °C or 2.0 °C global warming targets call for human concerns on warming climate on human society and environment in general. Here we analyzed spatiotemporal patterns and related impacts of precipitation extremes on human society across China using NEX-GDDP (NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections) dataset. We found increasing trends of almost all extreme precipitation indices except consecutive dry duration (CDD). Additional 0.5 °C warmer climate from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C global warming targets can double increase of extreme precipitation indices. Specifically, the increase of Rx5day (Max 5-day precipitation amount) is from 3.98% to 7.63%, the increase of R95pTOT (precipitation in very wet days) is from 19.41% to 34.42% and the increase of PRCPTOT (annual total wet-day precipitation) is from 3.89% to 8.23%, showing that additional 0.5 °C warmer climate can potentially increase flood risks across China. While, we also found regional differences in responses of extreme precipitation to warming climate. Extreme precipitation in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau, the Western Arid and semiarid zone and in the lower Yangtze River basin is in higher sensitivity to warming climate. Constraint of temperature increase of below 1.5 °C but not 2.0 °C will avoid 4.34% to 73.96% impacts of extreme precipitation on human society. It is particularly important for China since that more than half of territory of China is under exposure to high flood and drought disasters.
《巴黎协定》的 1.5°C 或 2.0°C 全球变暖目标呼吁人们关注全球变暖对人类社会和环境的影响。本研究利用 NEX-GDDP（NASA 地球交换全球每日下推预测）数据集，分析了中国极端降水事件对人类社会的时空分布模式及相关影响。我们发现，除连续干燥期（CDD）外，几乎所有极端降水指数都呈上升趋势。从 1.5°C 到 2.0°C 全球变暖目标额外增加 0.5°C，会使极端降水指数增加一倍。具体而言，Rx5day（最大 5 天降水量）的增幅从 3.98%增加到 7.63%，R95pTOT（非常湿润日的降水量）的增幅从 19.41%增加到 34.42%，PRCPTOT（年总湿日降水量）的增幅从 3.89%增加到 8.23%，表明额外增加 0.5°C 的暖化气候可能会增加中国的洪水风险。然而，我们还发现极端降水对暖化气候的响应存在区域差异。青藏高原、干旱和半干旱区西部以及长江下游地区的极端降水对暖化气候更为敏感。限制升温低于 1.5°C 而非 2.0°C，可避免极端降水对人类社会造成 4.34%至 73.96%的影响。这对中国尤为重要，因为中国有一半以上的领土面临着高洪水和干旱灾害的威胁。
