Brain Imaging Centre, Research Centre for Natural Sciences, Magyar tudósok körútja 2, 1117, Budapest, Hungary.
Doctoral School of Psychology, ELTE Eötvös Loránd University, Izabella utca 46, 1064, Budapest, Hungary.
Sci Rep. 2023 Jan 20;13(1):1127. doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-27642-z.
Predictions supporting risky decisions could become unreliable when outcome probabilities temporarily change, making adaptation more challenging. Therefore, this study investigated whether sensitivity to the temporal structure in outcome probabilities can develop and remain persistent in a changing decision environment. In a variant of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task with 90 balloons, outcomes (rewards or balloon bursts) were predictable in the task's first and final 30 balloons and unpredictable in the middle 30 balloons. The temporal regularity underlying the predictable outcomes differed across three experimental conditions. In the deterministic condition, a repeating three-element sequence dictated the maximum number of pumps before a balloon burst. In the probabilistic condition, a single probabilistic regularity ensured that burst probability increased as a function of pumps. In the hybrid condition, a repeating sequence of three different probabilistic regularities increased burst probabilities. In every condition, the regularity was absent in the middle 30 balloons. Participants were not informed about the presence or absence of the regularity. Sensitivity to both the deterministic and hybrid regularities emerged and influenced risk taking. Unpredictable outcomes of the middle phase did not deteriorate this sensitivity. In conclusion, humans can adapt their risky choices in a changing decision environment by exploiting the statistical structure that controls how the environment changes.
当结果概率临时发生变化时，支持风险决策的预测可能变得不可靠，从而使适应更加具有挑战性。因此，本研究探讨了在变化的决策环境中，对结果概率的时间结构的敏感性是否能够发展并保持持久。在一个有 90 个气球的气球模拟风险任务的变体中，在任务的前 30 个和最后 30 个气球中，结果（奖励或气球爆裂）是可预测的，而在中间的 30 个气球中是不可预测的。可预测结果的时间规律在三种实验条件下有所不同。在确定性条件下，一个重复的三元素序列决定了在气球爆裂之前最多可以进行多少次泵压。在概率条件下，单一的概率规律确保爆裂概率随着泵压的增加而增加。在混合条件下，三个不同的概率规律的重复序列增加了爆裂概率。在每种情况下，中间的 30 个气球中都不存在这种规律。参与者没有被告知规律的存在或不存在。对确定性和混合规律的敏感性都出现了，并影响了风险承担。中间阶段不可预测的结果并没有降低这种敏感性。总之，人类可以通过利用控制环境变化方式的统计结构，在变化的决策环境中调整自己的风险选择。
