Zhou Buxiang, Sun Binjie, Zang Tianlei, Cai Yating, Wu Jiale, Luo Huan
College of Electrical Engineering, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China.
Intelligent Electric Power Grid Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China.
Entropy (Basel). 2022 Dec 27;25(1):47. doi: 10.3390/e25010047.
With the increasing digitalization and informatization of distribution network systems, distribution networks have gradually developed into distribution network cyber physical systems (CPS) which are deeply integrated with traditional power systems and cyber systems. However, at the same time, the network risk problems that the cyber systems face have also increased. Considering the possible cyber attack vulnerabilities in the distribution network CPS, a dynamic Bayesian network approach is proposed in this paper to quantitatively assess the security risk of the distribution network CPS. First, the Bayesian network model is constructed based on the structure of the distribution network and common vulnerability scoring system (CVSS). Second, a combination of the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and entropy weight method is used to correct the selectivity of the attacker to strike the target when cyber attack vulnerabilities occur, and then after considering the defense resources of the system, the risk probability of the target nodes is obtained. Finally, the node loads and node risk rates are used to quantitatively assess the risk values that are applied to determine the risk level of the distribution network CPS, so that defense strategies can be given in advance to counter the adverse effects of cyber attack vulnerabilities.
随着配电网系统数字化和信息化程度的不断提高，配电网已逐渐发展成为与传统电力系统和网络系统深度融合的配电网信息物理系统（CPS）。然而，与此同时，网络系统面临的网络风险问题也有所增加。考虑到配电网CPS中可能存在的网络攻击漏洞，本文提出一种动态贝叶斯网络方法来定量评估配电网CPS的安全风险。首先，基于配电网结构和通用漏洞评分系统（CVSS）构建贝叶斯网络模型。其次，采用模糊层次分析法（FAHP）和熵权法相结合的方式，对网络攻击漏洞发生时攻击者打击目标的选择性进行修正，然后在考虑系统防御资源的情况下，得到目标节点的风险概率。最后，利用节点负荷和节点风险率对风险值进行定量评估，以确定配电网CPS的风险等级，从而提前给出防御策略，应对网络攻击漏洞带来的不利影响。
