College of Economics, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018, China.
Department of Sociology, Hangzhou Dianzi University, Hangzhou 310018, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Jan 12;20(2):1374. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20021374.
Soil moisture plays an important role in ecology, hydrology, agriculture and climate change. This study proposes a soil moisture prediction model, based on the depth and water balance equation, which integrates the water balance equation with the seasonal ARIMA model, and introduces the depth parameter to consider the soil moisture at different depths. The experimental results showed that the model proposed in this study was able to provide a higher prediction accuracy for the soil moisture at 40 cm, 100 cm and 200 cm depths, compared to the seasonal ARIMA model. Different models were used for different depths. In this study, the seasonal ARIMA model was used at 10 cm, and the proposed model was used at 40 cm, 100 cm and 200 cm, from which more accurate prediction values could be obtained. The fluctuation of the predicted data has a certain seasonal trend, but the regularity decreases with the increasing depth until the soil moisture is almost independent of the external influence at a 200 cm depth. The accurate prediction of the soil moisture can contribute to the scientific management of the grasslands, thus promoting ecological stability and the sustainable development of the grasslands while rationalizing land use.
土壤湿度在生态学、水文学、农业和气候变化中起着重要作用。本研究提出了一种土壤湿度预测模型，该模型基于深度和水量平衡方程，将水量平衡方程与季节性 ARIMA 模型相结合，并引入深度参数来考虑不同深度的土壤湿度。实验结果表明，与季节性 ARIMA 模型相比，本研究提出的模型能够为 40cm、100cm 和 200cm 深度的土壤湿度提供更高的预测精度。不同的模型用于不同的深度。在本研究中，季节性 ARIMA 模型用于 10cm 深度，而提出的模型用于 40cm、100cm 和 200cm 深度，可以获得更准确的预测值。预测数据的波动具有一定的季节性趋势，但随着深度的增加，规律性逐渐减小，直到 200cm 深度的土壤湿度几乎不受外部影响的影响。准确预测土壤湿度有助于对草原进行科学管理，从而促进生态稳定性和草原的可持续发展，同时合理利用土地。
