Wang Jian, Jiang Wenjing, Wu Xinpei, Yang Mengdie, Shao Wei
School of Mathematics and Statistics, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
Center for Applied Mathematics of Jiangsu Province, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044, China.
Chaos Solitons Fractals. 2023 Mar;168:113159. doi: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113159. Epub 2023 Jan 18.
In this paper, we investigate the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in controlling the infectivity and mortality of the SARS-CoV-2. Two major variants Delta and Omicron are investigated respectively. The main method used in the research is the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). We use as the evaluation of control effectiveness. In the transmission stages of Delta and Omicron, we observe whether shows a downward trend by gradually expanding the length of time series. Vaccine effectiveness is evaluated using a time series of newly diagnosed patients and newly reported deaths. Data samples are taken from 9 different countries. According to the obtained results, the vaccine controls infectivity and mortality of the virus in the Delta transmission stage, but infectivity control is less effective than mortality. In the Omicron transmission stage, the immune effect of the vaccine is not obvious, which may be related to the high infectivity of Omicron. However, the vaccine is still effective in controlling mortality. We also find that the immune effect of vaccine on Omicron was lower than that of Delta. Finally, we observe that the immune effect of the vaccine in 'Poland' was abnormal. By analyzing the vaccination curve, we conclude that in 'Poland', when the growth rate of vaccination rate slowed down, the immune effect of the vaccine was very poor in terms of pathogenicity and lethality. Therefore, we suggest that all countries should continue to strengthen the vaccination rate. A higher or faster growth rate of vaccination rate will help control the infectivity and mortality rate, especially in the effectiveness of controlling mortality. Our research can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccines for epidemic prevention and control, the formulation of epidemic prevention measures and vaccination policies for different countries with respect to their current pandemic situation accordingly.
在本文中,我们研究了新冠疫苗接种在控制新冠病毒感染性和死亡率方面的有效性。分别对两种主要变体德尔塔和奥密克戎进行了研究。研究中使用的主要方法是多重分形去趋势波动分析(MF-DFA)。我们用[具体指标]作为控制效果的评估指标。在德尔塔和奥密克戎的传播阶段,我们通过逐渐扩大时间序列的长度来观察[具体指标]是否呈下降趋势。使用新确诊患者和新报告死亡病例的时间序列来评估疫苗效力。数据样本取自9个不同国家。根据所得结果,疫苗在德尔塔传播阶段能控制病毒的感染性和死亡率,但在控制感染性方面的效果不如控制死亡率。在奥密克戎传播阶段,疫苗的免疫效果不明显,这可能与奥密克戎的高传染性有关。然而,疫苗在控制死亡率方面仍然有效。我们还发现疫苗对奥密克戎的免疫效果低于对德尔塔的免疫效果。最后,我们观察到疫苗在“波兰”的免疫效果异常。通过分析接种曲线,我们得出结论,在“波兰”,当接种率增长率放缓时,疫苗在致病性和致死率方面的免疫效果非常差。因此,我们建议所有国家应继续加强接种率。更高或更快的接种率增长率将有助于控制感染性和死亡率,尤其是在控制死亡率的有效性方面。我们的研究可用于评估疫苗在疫情防控中的有效性,根据不同国家当前的疫情形势制定相应的防疫措施和接种政策。