县级研究:中国 PM 和气候可持续性对死亡率的交互影响。
County level study of the interaction effect of PM and climate sustainability on mortality in China.
机构信息
Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
出版信息
Front Public Health. 2023 Jan 6;10:1036272. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1036272. eCollection 2022.
INTRODUCTION
PM and climate change are two major public health concerns, with majority of the research on their interaction focused on the synergistic effect, particularly for extreme events such as hot or cold temperatures. The climate sustainability index (CLS) was introduced to comprehensively explore the impact of climate change and the interactive effect on human health with air pollution.
METHODS
In this study, a county-level panel data in China was collected and used. The generalized additive model (GAM) and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) was used to explore the interactive and spatial effect on mortality between CLS and PM.
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
Individually, when CLS is higher than 150 or lower than 50, the mortality is higher. Moreover, when PM is more than 35 μg/m, the influence on mortality is significantly increased as PM concentration rises; when PM is above 70 μg/m, the trend is sharp. A nonlinear antagonistic effect between CLS and PM was found in this study, proving that the combined adverse health effects of climate change and air pollution, especially when CLS was lower (below 100) and PM was higher (above 35 μg/m), the antagonistic effect was much stronger. From a spatial perspective, the impact of CLS and PM on mortality varies in different geographical regions. A negative and positive influence of CLS and PM was found in east China, especially in the northeastern and northern regions, -which were heavily polluted. This study illustrated that climate sustainability, at certain level, could mitigate the adverse health influence of air pollution, and provided a new perspective on health risk mitigation from pollution reduction and climate adaptation.
简介
PM 和气候变化是两个主要的公共卫生关注点,大多数关于它们相互作用的研究都集中在协同效应上,特别是对于极端事件,如高温或低温。引入气候可持续性指数 (CLS) 是为了全面探讨气候变化及其与空气污染对人类健康的交互影响。
方法
本研究采用了中国县级面板数据。广义加性模型 (GAM) 和时空加权回归 (GTWR) 用于探索 CLS 和 PM 之间死亡率的交互和空间效应。
结果与讨论
单独来看,当 CLS 高于 150 或低于 50 时,死亡率较高。此外,当 PM 超过 35μg/m 时,随着 PM 浓度的升高,对死亡率的影响显著增加;当 PM 高于 70μg/m 时,趋势急剧上升。本研究发现 CLS 和 PM 之间存在非线性拮抗效应,证明气候变化和空气污染的综合不良健康影响,特别是当 CLS 较低(低于 100)和 PM 较高(高于 35μg/m)时,拮抗效应更强。从空间角度来看,CLS 和 PM 对死亡率的影响在不同地理区域有所不同。CLS 和 PM 在华东地区产生了负向和正向影响,特别是在污染严重的东北地区和北部地区。本研究表明,在一定程度上,气候可持续性可以减轻空气污染对健康的不利影响,为从减少污染和适应气候变化两个方面来降低健康风险提供了新视角。