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Multi-country clustering-based forecasting of healthy life expectancy.

作者信息

Levantesi Susanna, Nigri Andrea, Piscopo Gabriella, Spelta Alessandro

机构信息

Department of Statistics, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.

Department of Economics, Management and Territory, University of Foggia, Foggia, Italy.

出版信息

Qual Quant. 2023 Jan 14:1-27. doi: 10.1007/s11135-022-01611-6.


DOI:10.1007/s11135-022-01611-6
PMID:36685054
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9840427/
Abstract

Healthy life expectancy (HLE) is an indicator that measures the number of years individuals at a given age are expected to live free of disease or disability. HLE forecasting is essential for planning the provision of health care to elderly populations and appropriately pricing Long Term Care insurance products. In this paper, we propose a methodology that simultaneously forecasts HLE for groups of countries and allows for investigating similarities in their HLE patterns. We firstly apply a functional data clustering to the multivariate time series of HLE at birth of different countries for the years 1990-2019 provided by the Global Burden of Disease Study. Three clusters are identified for both genders. Then, we carry out the HLE simultaneous forecasting of the populations within each cluster by a multivariate random walk with drift. Numerical results and the statistical significance of the parameters of the identified multivariate processes are shown. Demographic evidences on the different evolution of HLE between countries are commented.

摘要
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/5aa2fb0ffaad/11135_2022_1611_Fig22_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/77ab871a77d9/11135_2022_1611_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/f96bf26df3ee/11135_2022_1611_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/f58f03ff078d/11135_2022_1611_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/d79da6ed075c/11135_2022_1611_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/8a81ac88f66c/11135_2022_1611_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/a1d3be5ce988/11135_2022_1611_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/c1465f310162/11135_2022_1611_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/231651ec19e2/11135_2022_1611_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/0fa4a4b09d9c/11135_2022_1611_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/ca5ad3b4324f/11135_2022_1611_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/9814440773f3/11135_2022_1611_Fig11_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/67ff4af0b286/11135_2022_1611_Fig12_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/55c9dbde02ef/11135_2022_1611_Fig13_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/85307e0645a1/11135_2022_1611_Fig14_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/2b94775971fc/11135_2022_1611_Fig15_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/62712f9ecf7d/11135_2022_1611_Fig16_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/32fd46c08637/11135_2022_1611_Fig17_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/3c6d16cea911/11135_2022_1611_Fig18_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/9bd2c6f373a5/11135_2022_1611_Fig19_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/576348e6d93f/11135_2022_1611_Fig20_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/92cf1cf24103/11135_2022_1611_Fig21_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/5aa2fb0ffaad/11135_2022_1611_Fig22_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/77ab871a77d9/11135_2022_1611_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/f96bf26df3ee/11135_2022_1611_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/f58f03ff078d/11135_2022_1611_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/d79da6ed075c/11135_2022_1611_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/8a81ac88f66c/11135_2022_1611_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/a1d3be5ce988/11135_2022_1611_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/c1465f310162/11135_2022_1611_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/231651ec19e2/11135_2022_1611_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/0fa4a4b09d9c/11135_2022_1611_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/ca5ad3b4324f/11135_2022_1611_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/9814440773f3/11135_2022_1611_Fig11_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/67ff4af0b286/11135_2022_1611_Fig12_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/55c9dbde02ef/11135_2022_1611_Fig13_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/85307e0645a1/11135_2022_1611_Fig14_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/2b94775971fc/11135_2022_1611_Fig15_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/62712f9ecf7d/11135_2022_1611_Fig16_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/32fd46c08637/11135_2022_1611_Fig17_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/3c6d16cea911/11135_2022_1611_Fig18_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/9bd2c6f373a5/11135_2022_1611_Fig19_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/576348e6d93f/11135_2022_1611_Fig20_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/92cf1cf24103/11135_2022_1611_Fig21_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/91c5/9840427/5aa2fb0ffaad/11135_2022_1611_Fig22_HTML.jpg

相似文献

[1]
Multi-country clustering-based forecasting of healthy life expectancy.

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[2]
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[3]
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[4]
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[5]
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J Glob Health. 2023-10-20

[6]
[Analysis of healthy life expectancy and related socioeconomic influencing factors among the middle-aged and elderly in China, the United States, and the European Union].

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2023-6-10

[7]
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[8]
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[9]
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[10]
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本文引用的文献

[1]
The relay for human longevity: country-specific contributions to the increase of the best-practice life expectancy.

Qual Quant. 2022

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Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021-11-16

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Lancet. 2020-10-17

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Lancet. 2014-6-30

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Lancet. 2012-12-15

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Ann Epidemiol. 2009-7

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