Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
Key Laboratory for Disease Prevention and Control and Health Promotion of Shaanxi Province, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Xi'an, Shaanxi, China.
J Glob Health. 2023 Dec 27;13:04185. doi: 10.7189/jogh.13.04185.
Healthy life expectancy (HLE) projections are required for optimising social and health service management in the future. Existing studies on the topic were usually conducted by selecting a single model for analysis. We thus aimed to use an ensembled model to project the future HLE for 202 countries/region.
We obtained data on age-sex-specific HLE and the sociodemographic index (SDI) level of 202 countries from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database and used a probabilistic Bayesian model comprised of 21 forecasting models to predict their HLE in 2030.
In general, HLE is projected to increase in all 202 countries, with the least probability of 82.4% for women and 81.0% for men. Most of the countries with the lowest projected HLE would be located in Africa. Women in Singapore have the highest projected HLE in 2030, with a 94.5% probability of higher than 75.2 years, which is the highest HLE in 2019 across countries. Maldives, Kuwait, and China are projected to have a probability of 49.3%, 41.2% and 31.6% to be the new entries of the top ten countries with the highest HLE for females compared with 2019. Men in Singapore are projected to have the highest HLE at birth in 2030, with a 93.4% probability of higher than 75.2 years. Peru and Maldives have a probability of 48.7% and 35.3% being new top ten countries in male's HLE. The female advantage in HLE will shrink by 2030 in 117 countries, especially in most of the high SDI and European countries.
HLE will likely continue to increase in most countries and regions worldwide in the future. More attention needs to be paid to combatting obesity, chronic diseases, and specific infectious diseases, especially in African and some Pacific Island countries. Although gender gaps may not be fully bridged, HLE could partially mitigate and even eliminate them through economic development and improvements in health care.
健康期望寿命（HLE）预测对于优化未来的社会和卫生服务管理至关重要。现有关于该主题的研究通常是通过选择单一模型进行分析。因此，我们旨在使用集成模型来预测 202 个国家/地区未来的 HLE。
我们从全球疾病负担（GBD）数据库中获取了 1990 年至 2019 年 202 个国家/地区的年龄性别特定 HLE 和社会人口指数（SDI）水平数据，并使用由 21 个预测模型组成的概率贝叶斯模型来预测它们在 2030 年的 HLE。
总体而言，所有 202 个国家/地区的 HLE 预计都会增加，女性的最低概率为 82.4%，男性为 81.0%。预计 HLE 最低的国家/地区大部分位于非洲。2030 年，新加坡女性的 HLE 预计最高，其概率为 94.5%，高于 75.2 岁，是 2019 年全球最高的 HLE。马尔代夫、科威特和中国预计将有 49.3%、41.2%和 31.6%的概率成为女性 HLE 最高的前十个国家的新成员，与 2019 年相比。2030 年，新加坡男性的 HLE 预计在出生时最高，其概率为 93.4%，高于 75.2 岁。秘鲁和马尔代夫在男性 HLE 方面的概率分别为 48.7%和 35.3%，成为前十个新国家。到 2030 年，117 个国家的 HLE 女性优势将缩小，尤其是在高 SDI 和欧洲国家。
未来，全球大多数国家和地区的 HLE 可能会继续增加。需要更加关注肥胖、慢性病和特定传染病的防治，特别是在非洲和一些太平洋岛国。尽管性别差距可能无法完全弥合，但通过经济发展和改善医疗保健，HLE 可以部分缓解甚至消除这些差距。
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