University of São Paulo.
CESMAC University Center.
Res Q Exerc Sport. 2024 Mar;95(1):54-59. doi: 10.1080/02701367.2022.2147477. Epub 2023 Jan 24.
: We determined whether cadet and junior Judo World Championship participation and medal achievement would predict senior performance at World Championship (WC) and Olympic Games (OG). : We analyzed retrospectively a total of 7780 athletes who competed at the OG and WC in the cadet, junior, and senior between 2009 and 2021. : There was an increase in the probability of winning a medal in the senior category (WC and OG, and only WC) ranged from 4.3 to 4.5 for medal-winning cadets compared to non-medalists and this probability remained around 3.3-3.8 for medalists in the male and 5.3-5.4 for the female medalists in cadet WC. Moreover, the chance of winning a medal in the senior category (WC and OG) was 8.1-8.5 times greater for medalists when compared to non-medalists in the junior WC. In turn, the probability of winning a medal in the senior (WC) was 1.5-1.7 times greater for athletes who did not compete in the junior WC. In the OG, the probability of winning a medal was 3.5 greater times for medalists when compared to non-medalists at cadet and junior WC. : Thus, being a cadet or junior WC medalist increases the probability of winning a senior WC or an Olympic medal.
我们研究了青年和少年世界柔道锦标赛的参赛和奖牌获得情况是否能预测运动员在成年组世界锦标赛(WC)和奥运会(OG)上的表现。我们回顾性分析了 2009 年至 2021 年期间参加青年、少年和成年组 OG 和 WC 的共计 7780 名运动员的数据。与未获得奖牌的运动员相比,获得奖牌的青年组(WC 和 OG,仅 WC)运动员在成年组获得奖牌的概率增加了 4.3 到 4.5 倍,而男子组的奖牌获得者概率约为 3.3-3.8 倍,女子组的奖牌获得者概率为 5.3-5.4 倍。此外,与少年组 WC 未获得奖牌的运动员相比,少年组 WC 获得奖牌的运动员在成年组(WC 和 OG)获得奖牌的机会增加了 8.1-8.5 倍。相反,与未参加少年组 WC 的运动员相比,在成年组(WC)获得奖牌的运动员的概率增加了 1.5-1.7 倍。在 OG 中,与在少年组 WC 中未获得奖牌的运动员相比,获得奖牌的运动员获得奖牌的概率增加了 3.5 倍。因此,成为青年或少年组 WC 的奖牌获得者会增加在成年组 WC 或奥运会上获得奖牌的概率。