Song Yu, Chen Bo, Wang Xin-Yi
Institute of Defense Economics and Management, Central University of Finance and Economics, 39 Xueyuan South Road, Beijing, China.
Financ Innov. 2023;9(1):29. doi: 10.1186/s40854-022-00445-3. Epub 2023 Jan 21.
As a financial innovation of the information age, cryptocurrency is a complex concept with clear advantages and disadvantages and is worthy of discussion. Exploring from a terrorism perspective, this study uses the time-varying parameter/stochastic volatility vector autoregression model to explore the risk hedging and terrorist financing capabilities of Bitcoin. Empirical results show that both terrorist incidents and brutality may explain Bitcoin price, but their effects are slightly different. Compared to terrorist brutality, terrorist incidents have a weaker impact on Bitcoin price, showing that Bitcoin investors are more concerned about the number of deaths than the frequency of terrorist attacks. In turn, the impact of Bitcoin price on terrorist attacks is negligible. Bitcoin is a potential means of financing terrorism, but it does not currently play an important role. Our research findings can help investors analyze and predict Bitcoin prices and help improve the theoretical system of anti-terrorist financing, helping to maintain world peace and security.
作为信息时代的一种金融创新，加密货币是一个具有明显优缺点的复杂概念，值得探讨。从恐怖主义角度进行探究，本研究使用时变参数/随机波动率向量自回归模型来探究比特币的风险对冲和恐怖主义融资能力。实证结果表明，恐怖主义事件和暴力程度都可能解释比特币价格，但其影响略有不同。与恐怖主义暴力程度相比，恐怖主义事件对比特币价格的影响较弱，这表明比特币投资者更关注死亡人数而非恐怖袭击的频率。反过来，比特币价格对恐怖主义袭击的影响可以忽略不计。比特币是恐怖主义融资的一种潜在手段，但目前并未发挥重要作用。我们的研究结果可以帮助投资者分析和预测比特币价格，并有助于完善反恐融资的理论体系，助力维护世界和平与安全。
