School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
China Institute of Manufacturing Development, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Apr;30(16):45986-46003. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-25592-7. Epub 2023 Jan 30.
The interdependent symbiotic relationship between enterprises may bring potential risks to the stability of the industrial symbiosis network (ISN). In order to reduce the damage caused by further risk propagation to the system, this paper establishes the multiplex network to study the impact of disclosure of risk information on risk propagation. In the multiplex network, we use a small-world network to simulate a social network and propose an evolutionary model with scale-free characteristics to simulate the symbiotic relationships between enterprises. Then we establish a risk propagation model by defining transition rules among various states. Through theoretical analysis using the Microscopic Markov Chain Approach (MMCA), we find that the proportion of disclosed enterprises, the network structure of the ISN, the recovery rate of enterprises, and the degree of symbiotic dependence affect the risk propagation threshold of the ISN. Numerical simulation results show that increasing the disclosure probability of risk information can reduce the scope of risk propagation. Moreover, once the disclosure probability of risk information reaches a certain value, the risk propagation threshold can be increased. Finally, relevant suggestions are put forward: (i) strengthening the information communication between symbiotic enterprises may reduce risks caused by information asymmetry. (ii) In addition to the authenticity and integrity of risk information, it is necessary to prevent risk information from being over-interpreted or exaggerated. (iii) Enterprises should strengthen the ability to recover from risks, appropriately reduce the degree of symbiotic dependence, and enhance risk awareness to reduce the possibility of risk occurrence.
企业间相互依存的共生关系可能给工业共生网络（ISN）的稳定性带来潜在风险。为了降低风险进一步传播对系统造成的损害，本文建立了复网模型来研究风险信息披露对风险传播的影响。在复网中，我们使用小世界网络来模拟社会网络，并提出了具有无标度特征的进化模型来模拟企业间的共生关系。然后，我们通过定义各种状态之间的转移规则来建立风险传播模型。通过使用微观马尔可夫链方法（MMCA）进行理论分析，我们发现披露企业的比例、ISN 的网络结构、企业的恢复率和共生依存度都会影响 ISN 的风险传播阈值。数值模拟结果表明，增加风险信息的披露概率可以降低风险传播的范围。而且，一旦风险信息的披露概率达到一定值，风险传播阈值就可以提高。最后，提出了以下建议：（i）加强共生企业之间的信息沟通，可以减少信息不对称带来的风险。（ii）除了风险信息的真实性和完整性，还需要防止风险信息被过度解读或夸大。（iii）企业应增强从风险中恢复的能力，适当降低共生依存度，增强风险意识，降低风险发生的可能性。
