School of Ecology and Environment, Beijing Technology and Business University, Beijing, China.
School of Economics and Management, Beihang University, Beijing, China; Future Cities Lab, Beihang University, China.
Environ Int. 2023 Feb;172:107767. doi: 10.1016/j.envint.2023.107767. Epub 2023 Jan 21.
Climate change has made disastrous heatwaves more frequent. Heatwave-related health impacts are much more devastating for more intense heatwaves. In the summer of 2017, exceptional heatwaves occurred in many regions, including China. This study aims to evaluate the cardiovascular mortality risk associated with the 2017 exceptional heatwaves and compare the mortality risk of the severe heatwaves with those in other years. Using daily data for a spectrum of cardiovascular mortality and temperature for 102 Chinese counties (2014-2017), we estimated the association between heatwave and mortality by generalized linear mixed-effects models. Compared with matched non-heatwave days, mortality risks on heatwaves days in 2017 increased 27.8% (95% CI, 14.8-42.3%), 26.7% (8.0-48.5%), 30.1% (10.2-53.7%), 27.3% (1.4-59.9%), 32.2% (3.4-68.4%), and 25.2% (1.0-57.7%) for total circulatory diseases, cerebrovascular disease, ischemic heart disease (IHD), acute IHD, chronic IHD, and myocardial infarction. The 2017 exceptional heatwaves impacted ischemic heart disease mortality and myocardial infarction mortality more than heatwaves in 2014-2016. Here we show that the severe heatwaves in 2017 posed catastrophic death threats for those under-studied cardiovascular diseases.
气候变化使得灾难性的热浪更加频繁。与热浪相关的健康影响在更强烈的热浪下更为严重。2017 年夏天,包括中国在内的许多地区都发生了异常热浪。本研究旨在评估 2017 年异常热浪与心血管疾病死亡率之间的关系,并比较严重热浪与其他年份的死亡率风险。本研究使用了 2014-2017 年中国 102 个县的心血管疾病死亡率和温度的日度数据,通过广义线性混合效应模型估计了热浪与死亡率之间的关系。与非热浪日相比,2017 年热浪日的死亡率风险增加了 27.8%(95%置信区间,14.8-42.3%)、26.7%(8.0-48.5%)、30.1%(10.2-53.7%)、27.3%(1.4-59.9%)、32.2%(3.4-68.4%)和 25.2%(1.0-57.7%),总循环系统疾病、脑血管疾病、缺血性心脏病(IHD)、急性 IHD、慢性 IHD 和心肌梗死。与 2014-2016 年的热浪相比,2017 年的异常热浪对缺血性心脏病死亡率和心肌梗死死亡率的影响更大。本研究表明,2017 年的严重热浪对那些研究较少的心血管疾病构成了灾难性的死亡威胁。