Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Zhongguancun South Street, Beijing, 100081, China.
Environmental Economics and Natural Resources Group, Wageningen University, Hollandseweg, Wageningen, 6706 KN, The Netherlands.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2023 Apr;30(16):46847-46868. doi: 10.1007/s11356-023-25139-w. Epub 2023 Feb 1.
A high-speed urban expansion in China over the past two decades has been accompanied by a great leap forward for energy consumption. However, such a significant socio-economic transition may increase the potential risk of energy inequality, which deserves special attention. Using China's provincial panel data covering the periods of 1997-2020, this paper mainly studies the impact of urbanization on urban-rural electricity consumption inequality with a modified STRIPAT model. The results of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation show that there is a significant U-shaped relationship between urbanization and urban-rural electricity consumption inequality. The estimated short-run turning point arrives at the urbanization level of around 63.54% and 61.18% for the long-run estimates. We further carry out a regional heterogeneity analysis and then have two interesting findings: firstly, the colder northern region's turning point (70.95%) arrives later than the south (57.69%). Secondly, the baseline U-shaped relationship remains for developed eastern regions and the estimated turning point is 57.91%, while for the undeveloped midwestern regions, the relationship is not nonlinear but linearly negative. As an extension, we lastly explore the mechanism underlying the U-shaped relationship, and find that the interaction of urbanization's scale and efficiency effect determines the U-shaped relationship. Our findings remind policymakers that, to narrow the urban-rural development gap, the future preference of energy policy should be dynamically adaptive to varied regions and development stages.
过去二十年来，中国的高速城市化扩张伴随着能源消耗的大幅增长。然而，这种重大的社会经济转型可能会增加能源不平等的潜在风险，这值得特别关注。本文利用中国省级面板数据，涵盖了 1997 年至 2020 年的时间段，主要使用修正的 STRIPAT 模型研究了城市化对城乡电力消费不平等的影响。广义矩估计（GMM）的结果表明，城市化与城乡电力消费不平等之间存在显著的 U 型关系。估计的短期转折点出现在城市化水平约为 63.54%和 61.18%，长期估计的转折点。我们进一步进行了区域异质性分析，然后得出了两个有趣的发现：首先，较冷的北方地区（70.95%）的转折点比南方（57.69%）来得晚。其次，对于发达的东部地区，基本的 U 型关系仍然存在，估计的转折点为 57.91%，而对于欠发达的中西部地区，关系不是非线性的，而是线性负相关。作为扩展，我们最后探讨了 U 型关系的内在机制，发现城市化规模和效率效应的相互作用决定了 U 型关系。我们的研究结果提醒政策制定者，为了缩小城乡发展差距，未来的能源政策偏好应根据不同的地区和发展阶段进行动态调整。
