Pulido-Velazquez David, Baena-Ruiz Leticia, Mayor Beatriz, Zorrilla-Miras Pedro, López-Gunn Elena, de Dios Gómez-Gómez Juan, de la Hera-Portillo África, Collados-Lara Antonio-Juan, Moreno Miguel Mejías, Aróstegui José Luis García, Alcalá Francisco J
Spanish Geological Survey (IGME), CSIC, Urb. Alcázar del Genil, 4. Edificio Zulema, Bajo, 18006 Granada, Spain.
ICATALIST, C/Borni 20, Las Rozas, Madrid, Spain.
Sci Total Environ. 2023 Apr 20;870:161905. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.161905. Epub 2023 Feb 2.
Designing sustainable management strategies in groundwater-dependent socio-economic systems in areas with scarce water resources and protected wetlands is a challenging issue. The high vulnerability of these systems to droughts will be exacerbated even further under future climate change (CC) and socio-economic scenarios. A novel integrated bottom-up/top-down approach is used to identify "climate resilient pathways", from which to co-design adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of potential future CC and socio-economic scenarios. The approach followed two steps (1) the generation of local CC and socio-economic scenarios by downscaling global/regional climate models and (2) the identification and assessment of potential adaptation strategies through an iterative bottom-up/top-down approach. Top-down assessments of the impact of CC have been undertaken by propagating local scenarios within a chain of mathematical models based on expert criteria/assumptions. This allowed us to analyse of the physical vulnerability of the system under different potential CC and socio-economic scenarios by simulating them with a sequential modelling of rainfall-recharge, agriculture, and hydrological processes through a distributed groundwater finite difference model. These model results were discussed with the stakeholders at a first workshop, which aimed to identify potential adaptation strategies. The influence of the adaptation strategies on the future hydrological status was assessed by simulating them through the chain of models. These results were the inputs into the discussions at a second workshop, which aimed to validate and/or improve the results of the first workshop. The methodology was applied in the Upper Guadiana River Basin, where there is a long-standing conflict between wetland conservation and groundwater overexploitation for intensive agriculture. The future horizon 2016-2045 is analysed with the scenarios compatible with the emission scenario RCP4.5. The research has allowed us to conclude that groundwater pumping reduction would be the most robust and effective measure to reduce the impact of CC in the area.
在水资源稀缺且有受保护湿地的地区，为依赖地下水的社会经济系统设计可持续管理策略是一个具有挑战性的问题。在未来气候变化（CC）和社会经济情景下，这些系统对干旱的高度脆弱性将进一步加剧。一种新颖的自下而上/自上而下综合方法被用于识别“气候适应途径”，据此共同设计适应策略，以减少未来潜在CC和社会经济情景的影响。该方法分两步进行：（1）通过降尺度全球/区域气候模型生成当地CC和社会经济情景；（2）通过迭代的自下而上/自上而下方法识别和评估潜在适应策略。通过基于专家标准/假设在一系列数学模型中传播当地情景，对CC的影响进行了自上而下的评估。这使我们能够通过分布式地下水有限差分模型，对降雨-补给、农业和水文过程进行顺序建模，模拟不同潜在CC和社会经济情景下系统的物理脆弱性。在第一次研讨会上，与利益相关者讨论了这些模型结果，旨在确定潜在适应策略。通过模型链模拟适应策略，评估了其对未来水文状况的影响。这些结果作为输入，用于第二次研讨会的讨论，该研讨会旨在验证和/或改进第一次研讨会的结果。该方法应用于上瓜迪亚纳河流域，那里湿地保护与集约化农业过度开采地下水之间存在长期冲突。采用与排放情景RCP4.5兼容的情景，分析了2016 - 2045年的未来前景。该研究使我们得出结论，减少地下水抽取将是减少该地区CC影响最有力且有效的措施。
