Department of Management - University of Bologna, Via Terracini 28, 40131, Bologna, Italy.
Department of Management - University of Bologna, Via Capo di Lucca 34, 40126, Bologna, Italy.
J Environ Manage. 2023 Apr 15;332:117327. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2023.117327. Epub 2023 Feb 3.
A great debate around development scenarios has come to define conversations around the economy and the environment, two dimensions that struggle to find a proper balance. In this paper we apply unconditional growth model analyses to a new and unique dataset of European regions between 2008 and 2016 and identify four development scenarios - green growth, green de-growth, black growth and black de-growth - characterized by different relationships between CO emissions and economic growth. We then map European regions across these four scenarios and describe the differences that occurred among regions in terms of socio-economic externalities, mainly competences, investments and well-being. Drawing on our analyses, we contribute to the debate on development scenarios and ecological macro-economics, as well as discuss implications for sustainability policy and research.
围绕发展情景的一场大辩论已经成为经济和环境对话的定义，这两个维度一直在努力寻找适当的平衡。在本文中，我们对 2008 年至 2016 年期间欧洲地区的一个新的独特数据集应用无条件增长模型分析，确定了四种发展情景——绿色增长、绿色去增长、黑色增长和黑色去增长——其特点是 CO2 排放与经济增长之间存在不同的关系。然后，我们将欧洲地区映射到这四种情景中，并描述了不同情景下地区之间在社会经济外部性方面的差异，主要是竞争力、投资和福祉。通过我们的分析，我们为发展情景和生态宏观经济学的辩论做出了贡献，同时也讨论了对可持续性政策和研究的影响。
