Yuan Jie, Liu Shucheng
School of Public Finance and Taxation, Zhejiang University of Finance and Economics, Hangzhou, 310018, China.
School of Economics, Xiamen University, Xiamen, 361005, China.
Sci Rep. 2024 May 26;14(1):12026. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-62916-0.
The transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing industry is supported by smart and green manufacturing, which have great potential to empower the nation's green development. This study examines the impact of the Made in China 2025 industrial policy on urban green economic growth. This study applies the super-slacks-based measure model to measure cities' green economic growth, using the double machine learning model, which overcomes the limitations of the linear setting of traditional causal inference models and maintains estimation accuracy under high-dimensional control variables, to conduct an empirical analysis based on panel data of 281 Chinese cities from 2006 to 2021. The results reveal that the Made in China 2025 strategy significantly drives urban green economic growth, and this finding holds after a series of robustness tests. A mechanism analysis indicates that the Made in China 2025 strategy promotes green economic growth through green technology progress, optimizing energy consumption structure, upgrading industrial structure, and strengthening environmental supervision. In addition, the policy has a stronger driving effect for cities with high manufacturing concentration, industrial intelligence, and digital finance development. This study provides valuable theoretical insights and policy implications for government planning to promote high-quality development through industrial policy.
中国制造业的转型升级以智能制造和绿色制造为支撑，这二者在推动国家绿色发展方面具有巨大潜力。本研究考察了《中国制造2025》产业政策对城市绿色经济增长的影响。本研究应用基于超效率松弛测度的模型来衡量城市的绿色经济增长，并使用双重机器学习模型进行实证分析，该模型克服了传统因果推断模型线性设定的局限性，在高维控制变量下仍能保持估计精度，实证分析基于2006年至2021年中国281个城市的面板数据。结果表明，《中国制造2025》战略显著推动了城市绿色经济增长，这一发现经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析表明，《中国制造2025》战略通过绿色技术进步、优化能源消费结构、升级产业结构以及加强环境监管来促进绿色经济增长。此外，该政策对制造业集中度高、产业智能化程度高以及数字金融发展水平高的城市具有更强的驱动作用。本研究为政府通过产业政策促进高质量发展的规划提供了有价值的理论见解和政策启示。
