Department of Biology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA 22904, USA.
Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory, Crested Butte, CO 81244, USA.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2023 Mar 27;378(1873):20220017. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0017. Epub 2023 Feb 6.
Evidence that climate change will impact the ecology and evolution of individual plant species is growing. However, little, as yet, is known about how climate change will affect interactions between plants and their pathogens. Climate drivers could affect the physiology, and thus demography, and ultimately evolutionary processes affecting both plant hosts and their pathogens. Because the impacts of climate drivers may operate in different directions at different scales of infection, and, furthermore, may be nonlinear, abstracting across these processes may mis-specify outcomes. Here, we use mechanistic models of plant-pathogen interactions to illustrate how counterintuitive outcomes are possible, and we introduce how such framing may contribute to understanding climate effects on plant-pathogen systems. We discuss the evidence-base derived from wild and agricultural plant-pathogen systems that could inform such models, specifically in the direction of estimates of physiological, demographic and evolutionary responses to climate change. We conclude by providing an overview of knowledge gaps and directions for future research in this important area. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.
越来越多的证据表明，气候变化将影响单个植物物种的生态和进化。然而，目前对于气候变化将如何影响植物与其病原体之间的相互作用知之甚少。气候驱动因素可能会影响植物的生理机能，从而影响其种群动态，并最终影响到植物宿主及其病原体的进化过程。由于气候驱动因素的影响在不同的感染尺度上可能朝着不同的方向作用，而且可能是非线性的，因此跨这些过程进行抽象可能会错误指定结果。在这里，我们使用植物-病原体相互作用的机理模型来说明可能出现违反直觉的结果，并且我们介绍了这种框架如何有助于理解气候变化对植物-病原体系统的影响。我们讨论了从野生和农业植物-病原体系统中得出的证据基础，这些基础可以为这些模型提供信息，特别是在估计对气候变化的生理、种群和进化反应方面。最后，我们概述了这一重要领域的知识空白和未来研究方向。本文是“变化世界中的传染病生态学和进化”主题特刊的一部分。
