Schattman Rachel E, Merrill Scott C, Tracy William F
School of Food and Agriculture, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, USA.
Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA.
Environ Entomol. 2024 Dec 16;53(6):1102-1110. doi: 10.1093/ee/nvae099.
Changing climate patterns will likely affect insect pressure on many agricultural crops. Mild winters may decrease the number of insects that experience reduced fecundity or that are killed during hard freezes. This may result in larger populations in subsequent years and allow for range expansion. Direct effects from pests are compounded by indirect effects, such as crop damage resulting from insect-vectored diseases. Corn flea beetle (Chaetocnema pulicaria) infestations have both direct and indirect effects on crops. This beetle is a pest on all types of corn in the United States, including sweet corn and grain corn (sometimes referred to as dent corn). It is responsible for damage to plant foliage and also serves as the primary overwintering vector for Pantoea stewartii bacterium, which causes Stewart's Wilt, a disease that can severely impact the health and productivity of corn. Evidence suggests that warmer winters will contribute to a geographic range expansion for the corn flea beetle. Here we show the projected northward expansion of economically damaging crop losses caused by Stewart's Wilt: (A) from 1980 to 2011, (B) projected by mid-century, and (C) projected by end-century. Our work suggests that climate change and associated increasing winter temperatures in the United States will lead to a dramatic increase in the probability of severe damage from corn flea beetle across the United States, including the Corn Belt. Predicted increases in pest and disease pressure will have negative ramifications for corn production and are likely to exacerbate issues associated with specific management tactics, such as pesticide application.
气候变化模式的改变可能会影响许多农作物面临的虫害压力。暖冬可能会减少因繁殖力下降或在严寒中死亡的昆虫数量。这可能导致后续年份害虫数量增多并使其活动范围扩大。害虫的直接影响会因间接影响而加剧，比如由昆虫传播疾病导致的作物损害。玉米跳甲（Chaetocnema pulicaria）的侵害对作物既有直接影响，也有间接影响。这种甲虫是美国所有类型玉米（包括甜玉米和谷用玉米，有时也称为马齿玉米）的害虫。它会损害植物叶片，也是斯氏泛菌的主要越冬传播媒介，这种细菌会引发斯图尔特枯萎病，一种会严重影响玉米健康和产量的疾病。有证据表明，暖冬将促使玉米跳甲的地理分布范围扩大。在此，我们展示了斯图尔特枯萎病导致的经济损失性作物损失预计向北扩展的情况：（A）1980年至2011年，（B）预计到本世纪中叶，以及（C）预计到本世纪末。我们的研究表明，美国的气候变化以及随之而来的冬季气温升高将导致美国各地，包括玉米带，玉米跳甲造成严重损害的可能性大幅增加。预计病虫害压力的增加将对玉米生产产生负面影响，并可能加剧与特定管理策略（如农药施用）相关的问题。
