School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield S3 7RH, UK.
Integrative Biology, University of California - Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720-5800, USA.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2023 Mar 27;378(1873):20220006. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2022.0006. Epub 2023 Feb 6.
Theoretical models of the evolution of parasites and their hosts have shaped our understanding of infectious disease dynamics for over 40 years. Many theoretical models assume that the underlying ecological dynamics are at equilibrium or constant, yet we know that in a great many systems there are fluctuations in the ecological dynamics owing to a variety of intrinsic or extrinsic factors. Here, we discuss the challenges presented when modelling evolution in systems with fluctuating ecological dynamics and summarize the main approaches that have been developed to study host-parasite evolution in such systems. We provide an in-depth guide to one of the methods by applying it to two worked examples of host evolution that have not previously been studied in the literature: when cycles occur owing to seasonal forcing in competition, and when the presence of a free-living parasite causes cycles, with accompanying interactive Python code provided. We review the findings of studies that have explored host-parasite evolution when ecological dynamics fluctuate, and point to areas of future research. Throughout we stress the importance of feedbacks between the ecological and evolutionary dynamics in driving the outcomes of infectious disease systems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.
寄生虫及其宿主进化的理论模型已经塑造了我们 40 多年来对传染病动力学的理解。许多理论模型假设潜在的生态动力学处于平衡或恒定状态,但我们知道,在许多系统中,由于各种内在或外在因素,生态动力学存在波动。在这里,我们讨论了在具有波动生态动力学的系统中进行进化建模所面临的挑战,并总结了用于研究此类系统中宿主-寄生虫进化的主要方法。我们通过将其应用于两个以前在文献中未研究过的宿主进化的实例来深入探讨其中一种方法:由于竞争中的季节性强制而导致循环的情况,以及自由生活的寄生虫存在导致循环的情况,并提供了相应的交互式 Python 代码。我们回顾了探索生态动力学波动时宿主-寄生虫进化的研究结果,并指出了未来的研究方向。在整个过程中,我们强调了生态和进化动力学之间的反馈在驱动传染病系统的结果方面的重要性。本文是“变化世界中的传染病生态学和进化”主题专刊的一部分。