Bibi Takele Sambeto, Kara Kefale Gonfa
Arba Minch University, Institute of Water Technology, Department of Water Supply and Sanitation Engineering, P.O.Box 21, Arba Minch, Ethiopia.
Madda Walabu University, College of Engineering, P.O.Box 247, Robe, Ethiopia.
Heliyon. 2023 Jan 14;9(1):e12955. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e12955. eCollection 2023 Jan.
The Personal Computer Storm Water Management Model was used in this study to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change, urbanization, and low-impact developments (LIDs) on urban flooding in Robe town, Ethiopia. To achieve the objective, four scenarios were developed in order to simulate changes in peak runoff, inundated volume, and the performance of existing drainage systems. The findings revealed that as urbanization increased from 10% to 70%, the inundated volume of nodes and peak runoff increased from 35,418 to 52,118 × 10 m and 89.4-111.96 m/s, respectively. Furthermore, the peak runoff in response to climate change is increased by 46.9%, 34.8%, and 37.5%, respectively, as a result of the Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model version 4 (RCA4), Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO22T), and the hydrostatic version of the regional model (REMO2009). Overall, the findings showed that existing drainage systems were unable to collect and convey the amplified inundation from different simulated scenarios, and the Welmel sub-city to roundabout was threatened by increased flooding, causing significant damage to properties and infrastructure. The implemented LIDs are capable of reducing the expected peak runoff, flooding magnitude, and flooded junctions in climate change and urbanization scenarios; however, combining both mitigation measures can further reduce the study area. The implementation of a mitigation strategy with adequate drainage systems will be required to mitigate the flooding risks in Robe town.
本研究采用个人计算机暴雨管理模型，以评估气候变化、城市化和低影响开发（LIDs）对埃塞俄比亚罗贝镇城市内涝的潜在影响。为实现这一目标，制定了四种情景，以模拟峰值径流、淹没体积和现有排水系统性能的变化。研究结果表明，随着城市化率从10%增至70%，节点的淹没体积和峰值径流分别从35418增至52118×10立方米以及从89.4增至111.96米/秒。此外，由于罗斯比中心区域气候模型第4版（RCA4）、区域大气气候模型（RACMO22T）和区域模型的静水压版本（REMO2009），气候变化导致的峰值径流分别增加了46.9%、34.8%和37.5%。总体而言，研究结果表明，现有排水系统无法收集和输送不同模拟情景下放大的洪水，韦尔梅尔次城至环形交叉路口受到洪水增加的威胁，对财产和基础设施造成重大破坏。实施的低影响开发措施能够在气候变化和城市化情景下降低预期的峰值径流、洪水规模和被淹路口；然而，将两种缓解措施结合起来可以进一步减少研究区域。需要实施带有适当排水系统的缓解策略，以减轻罗贝镇的洪水风险。
