Modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score for predicting mortality in emergency department patients with sepsis.

OBJECTIVE

Several scoring systems have been proposed for EDs to identify patients at increased risk of mortality from sepsis. The modified Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (mSOFA) score, proposed in 2019, demonstrated a high negative predictive value. We aimed to validate mSOFA and compare its accuracy for predicting 30-day mortality to the simple bedside score, quick SOFA (qSOFA).

METHODS

Over 1 month in 2018, consecutive patients with suspected sepsis were prospectively identified. A retrospective chart review was conducted to calculate both the mSOFA and qSOFA scores for these patients. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

There were 252 patients with suspected sepsis identified over the study period. Thirty-day mortality was 13/39 (33.3%) for those with a positive mSOFA and 15/211 (7.1%) for those with a negative mSOFA score. Sensitivity was 46.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] 27.5-66.1%), specificity 88.3% (95% CI 83.3-92.2%), positive likelihood ratio 3.96 (95% CI 2.32-6.78), negative likelihood ratio 0.61 (95% CI 0.43-0.86). The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.74 (95% CI 0.64-0.85). qSOFA sensitivity was 39.3% (95% CI 21.5-59.4%), specificity 91.9% (95% CI 87.5-95.1%), positive likelihood ratio 4.85 (95% CI 2.56-9.18) and negative likelihood ratio 0.66 (95% CI 0.49-0.89). The AUC for qSOFA was 0.81 (95% CI 0.73-0.88). The difference in the AUC was -0.07 (95% CI -0.18 to 0.05), P = 0.25.

CONCLUSIONS

In the present study, neither mSOFA nor qSOFA was adequately sensitive for predicting 30-day mortality, although both scores were highly specific and their overall accuracy was similar. The added complexity of the mSOFA without a significant increase in discriminative ability makes it unlikely to replace qSOFA in the ED setting.