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采用动态检测点部署策略优化大规模新冠病毒核酸检测

Optimizing Large-Scale COVID-19 Nucleic Acid Testing with a Dynamic Testing Site Deployment Strategy.

作者信息

He Xiaozhou, Luo Li, Tang Xuefeng, Wang Qingyi

机构信息

Business School, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China.

Management Science and Operations Research Institute, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, China.

出版信息

Healthcare (Basel). 2023 Jan 30;11(3):393. doi: 10.3390/healthcare11030393.

Abstract

The COVID-19 epidemic has spread worldwide, infected more than 0.6 billion people, and led to about 6 million deaths. Conducting large-scale COVID-19 nucleic acid testing is an effective measure to cut off the transmission chain of the COVID-19 epidemic, but it calls for deploying numerous nucleic acid testing sites effectively. In this study, we aim to optimize the large-scale nucleic acid testing with a dynamic testing site deployment strategy, and we propose a multiperiod location-allocation model, which explicitly considers the spatial-temporal distribution of the testing population and the time-varied availability of various testing resources. Several comparison models, which implement static site deployment strategies, are also developed to show the benefits of our proposed model. The effectiveness and benefits of our model are verified with a real-world case study on the Chenghua district of Chengdu, China, which indicates that the optimal total cost of the dynamic site deployment strategy can be 15% less than that of a real plan implemented in practice and about 2% less than those of the other comparison strategies. Moreover, we conduct sensitivity analysis to obtain managerial insights and suggestions for better testing site deployment in field practices. This study highlights the importance of dynamically deploying testing sites based on the target population's spatial-temporal distribution, which can help reduce the testing cost and increase the robustness of producing feasible plans with limited medical resources.

摘要

新冠疫情已在全球蔓延,感染人数超过6亿,导致约600万人死亡。开展大规模新冠核酸检测是切断新冠疫情传播链的有效措施,但这需要有效部署众多核酸检测点。在本研究中,我们旨在通过动态检测点部署策略优化大规模核酸检测,为此提出了一个多阶段选址 - 分配模型,该模型明确考虑了检测人群的时空分布以及各类检测资源随时间变化的可用性。还开发了几个实施静态检测点部署策略的对比模型,以展示我们所提模型的优势。通过对中国成都成华区的一个实际案例研究,验证了我们模型的有效性和效益,结果表明动态检测点部署策略的最优总成本比实际实施的一个真实方案低15%,比其他对比策略低约2%。此外,我们进行了敏感性分析,以获得管理见解并为现场实践中更好地部署检测点提供建议。本研究突出了根据目标人群的时空分布动态部署检测点的重要性,这有助于降低检测成本,并提高在医疗资源有限的情况下制定可行方案的稳健性。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/26ec/9914260/6f817bde2c82/healthcare-11-00393-g001.jpg

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