Department of Statistics and Quantitative Methods, University of Milan-Bicocca, 20126 Milan, Italy.
Department of Medicine and Surgery, University of Milan-Bicocca, 20126 Milan, Italy.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2023 Jan 24;20(3):2136. doi: 10.3390/ijerph20032136.
Studies on SARS-CoV-2 conducted in confined settings for prolonged times allow researchers to assess how the coronavirus spreads. San Patrignano (SP), Italy, is the largest European drug rehabilitation facility.
Between 15 October and 31 December 2020, all SP residents were tested for SARS-CoV-2. We analyzed the relationships between individual characteristics and being SARS-CoV-2-positive. Three selected predictive models were used to calculate the number of expected hospitalizations. For each model, we summed the estimated individual risks to obtain the expected number of hospitalizations in our sample, and we tested whether the observed and expected numbers differed.
Of 807 residents, 529 (65.6%) were SARS-CoV-2-positive. Of these 323 (61.1%) were symptomatic. A strong relationship was found between being positive and living connections (-value < 0.001). No statistically significant relationship was found with age, sex, smoking history, or comorbidities. Although 9 to 17 hospitalizations were expected, no hospitalizations were observed (-value < 0.001). No one died of COVID-19.
The peculiar characteristics of SP residents or the SP environment might at least partially explain the null hospitalization rates. Despite the extreme uniqueness of our population and despite the protected environment and all precautions that were taken, the fact that the virus was able to circulate and infect a large portion of the population highlights the fundamental role of social interactions in the spread of the disease.
在封闭环境中长时间进行的 SARS-CoV-2 研究使研究人员能够评估冠状病毒的传播方式。意大利圣帕特里克诺(San Patrignano)是欧洲最大的毒品康复中心。
在 2020 年 10 月 15 日至 12 月 31 日期间,对圣帕特里克诺的所有居民进行了 SARS-CoV-2 检测。我们分析了个体特征与 SARS-CoV-2 阳性之间的关系。使用了三个选定的预测模型来计算预期的住院人数。对于每个模型,我们将估计的个体风险相加,以获得我们样本中的预期住院人数,并测试观察到的和预期的数字是否存在差异。
在 807 名居民中,有 529 名(65.6%)SARS-CoV-2 阳性。其中 323 名(61.1%)出现症状。阳性结果与生活接触密切相关(P 值<0.001)。与年龄、性别、吸烟史或合并症无统计学显著关系。虽然预计会有 9 至 17 人住院,但实际上没有观察到住院(P 值<0.001)。没有人死于 COVID-19。
圣帕特里克诺居民或其环境的特殊特征至少可以部分解释住院率为零的原因。尽管我们的人群极其独特,尽管环境得到了保护,所有预防措施都已采取,但病毒能够在很大一部分人群中传播并感染他们,这凸显了社交互动在疾病传播中的重要作用。