Factors Associated with Progression of Atrial Fibrillation and Impact on All-Cause Mortality in a Cohort of European Patients.

BACKGROUND

Paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF) may often progress towards more sustained forms of the arrhythmia, but further research is needed on the factors associated with this clinical course.

METHODS

We analyzed patients enrolled in a prospective cohort study of AF patients. Patients with paroxysmal AF at baseline or first-detected AF (with successful cardioversion) were included. According to rhythm status at 1 year, patients were stratified into: (i) No AF progression and (ii) AF progression. All-cause death was the primary outcome.

RESULTS

A total of 2688 patients were included (median age 67 years, interquartile range 60-75, females 44.7%). At 1-year of follow-up, 2094 (77.9%) patients showed no AF progression, while 594 (22.1%) developed persistent or permanent AF. On multivariable logistic regression analysis, no physical activity (odds ratio [OR] 1.35, 95% CI 1.02-1.78), valvular heart disease (OR 1.63, 95% CI 1.23-2.15), left atrial diameter (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.01-1.05), or left ventricular ejection fraction (OR 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-1.00) were independently associated with AF progression at 1 year. After the assessment at 1 year, the patients were followed for an extended follow-up of 371 days, and those with AF progression were independently associated with a higher risk for all-cause death (adjusted hazard ratio 1.77, 95% CI 1.09-2.89) compared to no-AF-progression patients.

CONCLUSIONS

In a contemporary cohort of AF patients, a substantial proportion of patients presenting with paroxysmal or first-detected AF showed progression of the AF pattern within 1 year, and clinical factors related to cardiac remodeling were associated with progression. AF progression was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality.