Refined assessment and decomposition analysis of carbon emissions in high-energy intensive industrial sectors in China.

Carbon emissions from high-energy intensive industrial sectors are the focus of this study due to the huge energy consumption of these sectors. A refined carbon emission inventory of Chinese high-energy intensive industrial sectors in 2020 was first developed at the point source level. The results showed that coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) were the leading contributors to carbon emissions, followed by iron and steel smelting (ISS) and cement production (CMP). Provinces with high carbon emission intensity were mainly concentrated in the north and northeast coasts, while exhibiting a developed economic level and a concentration of heavy industries. Additionally, the growth in China's industrial carbon emissions from 1995 to 2020 can be divided into three phases. The largest decrease in emission intensity was observed in Central, Southwest, North, and East China. Furthermore, the economic structure remained the dominant driver of carbon emissions from the 10th to 13th Five-Year Plan (FYP), playing a positive promotional role. The contribution of economic structure, energy intensity, and energy structure to carbon emissions varied substantially by region and period. With the proposal of sustainable development and energy conservation in China, the influence of economic structure on the carbon emissions of industrial sectors has gradually weakened since the 11th FYP. The reduction in industrial carbon emissions in China under three scenarios could reach up to 46.6 % from 2030 to 2050. The results indicate that industrial carbon emission control in China needs to be integrated into the refined control pathway for conventional air pollutants, considering the spatial variability of industrial carbon emissions in China.