State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disasters of Chinese Ministry of Education, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China.
Nat Commun. 2023 Feb 16;14(1):862. doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-36564-3.
By exciting subtropical teleconnections, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) during boreal spring can trigger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the following boreal winter, thereby providing a precursor for ENSO predictability. However, this NTA-ENSO connection is not stationary, and it varies considerably over multidecadal timescales, which cannot be directly explained by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation or the global warming trend. Here we show that multidecadal changes in the NTA-ENSO connection are principally controlled by multidecadal variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the positive phase of the NAO, the amplification of the NTA impact on ENSO mainly arises from strengthening of the boreal spring mean precipitation over the equatorial Atlantic and enhancement of the persistence of NTA SST anomalies, which enhance the NTA influence by exciting stronger and more persistent subtropical teleconnections. Our findings show that multidecadal variability of the NAO is key to understanding the impacts of the NTA SST on the tropical Pacific Ocean.
通过激发亚热带遥相关，北大西洋热带地区（NTA）春季海表温度（SST）异常可以在随后的冬季引发厄尔尼诺-南方涛动（ENSO）事件，从而为 ENSO 的可预测性提供前兆。然而，这种 NTA-ENSO 联系不是固定的，它在多十年的时间尺度上有很大的变化，这不能直接用大西洋多年代际震荡或全球变暖趋势来解释。在这里，我们表明，NTA-ENSO 联系的多十年变化主要受北大西洋涛动（NAO）相关的多十年变化控制。在 NAO 的正相位期间，NTA 对 ENSO 的影响增强主要源于赤道大西洋春季平均降水的加强和 NTA SST 异常持续性的增强，这通过激发更强和更持久的亚热带遥相关，增强了 NTA 的影响。我们的研究结果表明，北大西洋涛动的多十年变化是理解 NTA SST 对热带太平洋影响的关键。
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