Estimating inbreeding rate and effective population size in the Finnish Ayrshire population in the era of genomic selection.

Genomic selection has been applied in dairy cattle breeding over the last decade. Using genomic information may speed up genetic gain as breeding values can be predicted reasonably accurately directly after birth. However, genetic diversity may decrease if the inbreeding rate per generation increases and the effective population size decreases. Despite many positive qualities of the Finnish Ayrshire, for example, high average protein yield and fertility, over time the breed has lost its place as the most common dairy breed in Finland. Thus, maintaining the genetic variability of the breed is becoming more important. The aim of our research was to estimate the impact of genomic selection on inbreeding rate and effective population size using both pedigree and genomic data. The genomic data included 46,914 imputed single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variants from 75,038 individuals, and the pedigree data included 2,770,025 individuals. All animals in the data were born between 2000 and 2020. Genomic inbreeding coefficients were estimated as the proportion of SNPs in runs of homozygosity (ROH) out of the total number of SNPs. The inbreeding rate was estimated by regressing the mean genomic inbreeding coefficients on birth years. Effective population size was then estimated based on the inbreeding rate. Additionally, effective population size was estimated from the mean increase in individual inbreeding using pedigree data. Introduction of genomic selection was assumed to have taken place gradually; years 2012-2014 were treated as a transition period from the traditional phenotype-based breeding value estimation to genomic-based estimation. The median length of the identified homozygous segments was 5.5 Mbp, and a slight increase in the proportion of segments over 10 Mbp was observed after 2010. The inbreeding rate decreased from 2000 to 2011 and subsequently increased slightly. The pedigree- and genomic-based estimates of inbreeding rate were similar to each other. The estimates of effective population size based on the regression method were very sensitive to the number of years considered; thus, the estimates were not very reliable. The effective population size estimated from the mean increase in individual inbreeding reached its highest value of 160 in 2011 and decreased to 150 after that. In addition, the generation interval in the sire path has decreased from 5.5 years to 3.5 years after genomic selection was implemented. Based on our results, after the implementation of genomic selection, the proportion of long ROH stretches has increased, the generation interval in the sire path has decreased, the inbreeding rate has increased and the effective population size has decreased. However, the effective population size is still at a good level, allowing for an efficient selection scheme in the Finnish Ayrshire breed.