Meireles Ricardo C, Lopes Leonardo E, Brito Gustavo R, Solar Ricardo
Pós-graduação em Ecologia, Conservação e Manejo da Vida Silvestre Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais Belo Horizonte Brazil.
Laboratório de Biologia Animal, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas e da Saúde Universidade Federal de Viçosa Florestal Brazil.
Ecol Evol. 2023 Feb 14;13(2):e9802. doi: 10.1002/ece3.9802. eCollection 2023 Feb.
Global changes increasingly worry researchers and policymakers and may have irreversible impacts on Earth's biodiversity. Similar to other phytophysiognomies, natural grasslands suffer from the effects of land use changes and rising temperatures, threatening animal and plant communities. Birds, being very sensitive to these changes, are widely studied and fundamental to understand the dynamics of ecosystems in relation to climate and land use changes. The Campo Miner is a grassland bird endemic to the Brazilian Cerrado and threatened with extinction that has been widely studied in recent years. We analyze the decrease in its extent of occurrence (EOO) and the effects of climate and land use change to understand the environmental suitability of the species in current and future scenarios. We used 5 common algorithms to produce ecological niche models. For future predictions, we use two general circulation models for two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios with different climate policies, an optimistic (ssp245) and a pessimistic (ssp585), plus two land use models focusing on increasing farmlands and reducing native grasslands. The current EOO represents ~45% of that presented by the IUCN EOO. The models generated for the present were satisfactory (TSS = 0.77 and ROC = 0.90) and showed high environmental suitability in areas where the species is currently found and low suitability where it is already extinct. All future scenarios have reduced suitable areas for the species, and the models of a greater increase in temperature and increase in farmlands and a greater decrease in grasslands were the worse. Our results reinforce the need to care about biome awareness disparity and the importance of actively preserving grassy-shrub areas. Apparently, the state of Minas Gerais will be the only stronghold of the species in the coming years; however, the lack of protected areas that guarantee its survival needs attention.
全球变化日益引起研究人员和政策制定者的担忧，可能对地球生物多样性产生不可逆转的影响。与其他植物外貌特征类似，天然草原也受到土地利用变化和气温上升的影响，威胁着动植物群落。鸟类对这些变化非常敏感，受到广泛研究，对于理解生态系统与气候和土地利用变化相关的动态至关重要。坎波矿工鸟是巴西塞拉多地区特有的草原鸟类，面临灭绝威胁，近年来受到广泛研究。我们分析了其分布范围（EOO）的减少以及气候和土地利用变化的影响，以了解该物种在当前和未来情景下的环境适宜性。我们使用了5种常用算法来生成生态位模型。对于未来预测，我们使用两种通用环流模型，针对两种不同的温室气体排放情景和不同气候政策，一种乐观情景（ssp245）和一种悲观情景（ssp585），再加上两种土地利用模型，重点关注农田增加和原生草原减少。当前的EOO约占世界自然保护联盟（IUCN）公布的EOO的45%。为当前情况生成的模型令人满意（TSS = 0.77，ROC = 0.90），在该物种目前分布的地区显示出较高的环境适宜性，而在其已经灭绝的地区适宜性较低。所有未来情景都显示该物种的适宜区域减少，温度升高幅度更大、农田增加且草原减少幅度更大的模型表现更差。我们的结果强化了关注生物群落认知差异的必要性以及积极保护草地灌木区域的重要性。显然，米纳斯吉拉斯州在未来几年将成为该物种的唯一据点；然而，缺乏保障其生存的保护区这一问题需要关注。
