Earth, Environmental and Geographic Sciences Department, Irving K. Barber Faculty of Science, University of British Columbia Okanagan, Kelowna, Canada.
Earth, Environmental and Geographic Sciences Department, Irving K. Barber Faculty of Science, University of British Columbia Okanagan, Kelowna, Canada.
Sci Total Environ. 2024 Jan 10;907:167944. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167944. Epub 2023 Oct 18.
Climate-driven migrations towards Northern latitudes are expected to reorganize biotic communities as result of range shift dynamics. However, the establishment of healthy populations of migrating species depends on habitat provision by receptor landscapes. Here, we ask if the rising temperatures and changes in precipitation regimes in western North America are likely to lead to an expansion of warm and dry-affiliated species, using the burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) as a study case. This migratory species depends on grassland habitats for nesting and breeding, so we test for the effect of the lack of grasslands on the occupancy of future suitable environments. To estimate the burrowing owl's potential distribution, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) calibrated with climate and soil information and projected onto future scenarios of climate change (low versus high greenhouse gas emission). Then, we simulated environmental sorting using habitat filter masks derived from information on habitat use and forecasts of future land use change, focusing on grasslands as nesting and breeding habitat. We found that the burrowing owl could expand its geographic distribution by 3 to 10-fold towards Northern latitudes, especially under high-emission scenarios of climate change. However, nearly half of the suitable environments (up to 53,593 km of locations with suitable climate and soil) might not be covered by grasslands, due to conversion to agriculture and other human land uses which may prevent the establishment of breeding populations. Our results shed light on the pervasive effects of neglecting the preservation of grasslands across western North America, which could provide critically needed habitat for migrating species from lower latitudes. Enhancing and facilitating the colonization of novel species is a shift in the static paradigm of biodiversity conservation and a proactive measure for climate change adaptation.
由于范围转移动态，预计向北方纬度的气候驱动迁移将重新组织生物群落。然而，迁移物种健康种群的建立取决于受体景观提供的栖息地。在这里，我们通过以穴鸮（Athene cunicularia）为研究案例，来探讨在北美西部不断上升的气温和降水格局变化是否可能导致温暖和干燥相关物种的扩张。这种迁徙物种依赖草原生境筑巢和繁殖，因此我们测试了缺乏草原对未来适宜环境的占用的影响。为了估计穴鸮的潜在分布，我们使用了气候和土壤信息校准的生态位模型 (ENMs)，并将其投影到气候变化的未来情景中（低排放与高排放温室气体情景）。然后，我们使用源自栖息地使用信息和未来土地利用变化预测的栖息地筛选器掩模来模拟环境选择，重点关注作为筑巢和繁殖栖息地的草原。我们发现，穴鸮的地理分布范围可能会向北扩大 3 到 10 倍，特别是在高排放的气候变化情景下。然而，由于转化为农业和其他人类土地利用，近一半的适宜环境（多达 53593 公里的气候和土壤适宜的地点）可能无法被草原覆盖，这可能会阻止繁殖种群的建立。我们的研究结果揭示了忽视北美西部草原保护的普遍影响，这可能为来自低纬度的迁徙物种提供急需的栖息地。增强和促进新物种的殖民化是生物多样性保护静态范式的转变，也是适应气候变化的积极措施。
